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1 | Risk Identification and Tracking | Pre-Mitigated Risk Evaluation | Current Risk Response | Major Risk Flag | Post-Mitigated Risk Evaluation | Comments / Notes | Risk Cost Exposure | Risk Schedule Exposure | Risk Retirement Timeframe | Remaining Contingency | Remaining Contingency | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | Revision History | Probability and Impacts | Initial Risk Exposure | Probability and Impacts | Resulting Risk Exposure | NSF $ | Unit of weeks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | Risk ID | Associated WBS | Risk Description | Risk Title | Risk Origin Date | Last modified Date | Risk Retirement Date | Risk Probability | Impact on schedule | Impact on cost | Impact on technical performance | Schedule Risk Score | Cost Risk Score | Technical Performance Risk Score | Risk Owner | Risk Occurrence Timeframe | Risk Handling Approach / Response | Risk Trigger | Risk Mitigation Plan and Actions | Risk Probability | Impact on schedule | Impact on cost | Impact on technical performance | Schedule Risk Score | Cost Risk Score | Technical Performance Risk Score | Basis for the risk and schedule exposure | Risk Cost Exposure | Low Estimate | Average Estimate | High Estimate | Risk Schedule Exposure | Low Estimate | High Estimate | Expected | Actual | PY1-18/19 | PY2-19/20 | PY3-20/21 | PY4-21/22 | PY5-22/23 | PY6-23/24 | PY6-23/24 | PY6-23/24 | |||
4 | 1.1 Project Office | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | EXT1 | 1.1.4 | Fuel Delivery Delayed - Less fuel on hand than needed, so must save some in the drilling - no or less de-gassing of holes. | Fuel Delays | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Very low | Very High | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | PM Feyzi | FS2 & FS3 | Mitigate | ASC communication in 2022 | Communicate the fuel requirements to ASC and NSF as early as possible and monitor. Fuel requirements will be in the SIP and are confirmed by the RSP. Could also mitigate with some scope reduction, eliminate de-gassing, shorter drill holes. | Very Low | Very low | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Need for additional calibration efforts for the bubble column (if de-gassing not done). Scope decrease in deep ice measurements. | $200,000 | $100,000 | $250,000 | $400,000 | 4 | 0 | 8 | FS3 | $36,000 | $36,000 | $36,000 | $36,000 | $36,000 | ||||||||
6 | EXT2 | 1.1.4 | Winter Storage DNF Failure - McMurdo or South Pole winter storage heat failure damages equipment/sensors | DNF Failure | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Very low | High | High | Very low | Low | Low | Low | McEwen | 22/23 or 23/24 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Work with ASC to develop back-up plan in the event of long-term power failure. If there is a major power failure at Pole during the winter, the Winterover staff will make corrections ASAP. Will require monitoring of the temperatures. | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Low | Mitigation could be just in time delivery of DNF items. Storing fewer items. Cost is estimate of posssible repair efforts. Estimate at 25% of a field season worth of effort for repair. | $500,000 | $100,000 | $1,000,000 | 12 | 0 | 52 | |||||||||||||||
7 | ORG1 | 1.1.4 | If schedule delays lead to less than full complement of optical modules for delivery, then air shipment is required | Optical modules by air | 8/2/2018 | Moderate | Very low | Low | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | OM lead Karg | Shipping deadlines | Mitigate | Schedule slip | Plan for some air shipments which could cover last modules, keep on top of deliveries | Low | Very low | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Shipping estimate - difference truck PTH vs COMAIR to CHC | $12,000 | $5,000 | $25,000 | 0 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
8 | EXT3 | 1.1.4 | Traverse Delays - Weather or equipment problems precludes a traverse moving IceCube equipment to NPX. | Traverse Delays | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Low | Moderate | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | McEwen | 22/23 or 23/24 | Mitigate | Communication from Traverse Leader that delivery to NPX is delayed. | Detailed planning meetings with ASC. Track traverse metrics on meeting delivery to NPX commitments. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Risk Cost is related to additonal labor needed to recover from late delivery. | $25,000 | $5,000 | $40,000 | 4 | 2 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
9 | EXT4 | 1.1.4 | Domestic/International Shipping Delays - Equipment being shipped to PTH, or via vessel are delayed en route. | Shipping Delays | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | McEwen | 22/23 or 23/24 | Mitigate | Poor performance during the Production phase for Upgrade instrumentation. | Schedule CONUS shipments of most critical items with additional time. Plan vessel/traverse shipments with a backup LC130 fly-in plan. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Add cost for shipping via air to CHC. | $12,000 | $5,000 | $25,000 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
10 | EXT5 | 1.1.4 | ASC Support Impacts - Equipment and labor support is reassigned to other projects, or unavailable. | ASC Support | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | PM/Feyzi | 22/23 or 23/24 | Mitigate | Communication from ASC Science Support staff that Upgrade project will not get agreed upon support. | Detailed planning meetings with ASC. Review submitted SIP each year. Confirm support in RSP matches needs identified in the SIP. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | If ASC support is not available, will have to make a plan for the project to execute needed work. | $17,500 | $5,000 | $35,000 | 4 | 1 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
11 | ORG2 | 1.1.3 | Major injury occurs during drill season, but not associated with drilling. Work stoppage occurs until review is performed and "safe to proceed" determined. | M&O Injury | 8/2/2018 | 2/28/2022 | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Safety Mgr Zernick | Field season 3 | Mitigate | Injury | Extensive safety program training before and on the ice, procedure for handling injury root case analysis, procedure for reauthorizing work. Design engineered safety controls throughout to assist mitigation. | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Cost of 2 week work stoppage at Pole. | $70,000 | $45,000 | $145,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 25/26 | ||||||||||||||
12 | EXT6 | 1.1.4 | Weather/flight delays of equipment or personnel to South Pole delays drilling greater than 2 weeks. | Logistics Delays | 8/15/2018 | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | PM | Field season 3 | Watch | Weather/Aircraft | Monitor logistics and maintain communications throughout the logistics chain for potential technical impacts | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Minor cost impact | $20,000 | $10,000 | $40,000 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
13 | PM1 | 1.1 | Inflation is high at the moment, in fact in many areas the one year inflation rate is 20% or higher. | Inflation | 3/3/2022 | High | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate | High | Moderate | PD | 2022 | Watch | Cost inflation | Monitor new quotations. Most purchases of CapEx are complete already. This might be larger effect in salaries and indirect, see PM2 risk. | High | Low | Moderate | Very Low | Moderate | High | Low | 10% of PY5-8 costs not including labor, not compounded | $160,000 | $80,000 | $240,000 | 2 | 0 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||
14 | PM2 | 1.1 | The great resignation can affect the project team, and could result in departures of personnel in critical roles. | Resignation | 3/3/2022 | High | Moderate | Moderate | Low | High | High | Moderate | PD | 2022 | Mitigate | Morale and/or job market | Explicit efforts at improving morale, salary increases, increased workplace flexibility. | High | Moderate | Moderate | Very Low | High | High | Low | 20% increase on 10% of key roles for PY5-8 labor rates, difficulties in finding new personnel | $240,000 | $200,000 | $400,000 | 12 | 4 | 26 | ||||||||||||||||
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16 | 1.2 Northern Risks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
17 | TECH1 | 1.2.4 | Unable to complete controls system work on-schedule due to cargo front-loading and/or staffing limitations. | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 1 | 4/2/2020 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Moderate | High | High | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Projected missed ship date | April 2022 status review of the drill control systems, supplement staff | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Bring in extra 1FTE x 6mo to catch up | $103,500 | $60,000 | $150,000 | 4 | 2 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
18 | TECH2 | 1.2.4 | Unable to make critical controls hardware procurements (motor drives, DGH's servers, sensors, etc) on-schedule due to vendor shortages and transportation delays. | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 2 | 4/2/2020 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | High | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Projected missed ship date | Comsur shipments, supplement staff | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Bring in extra 1FTE x 6mo to catch up | $103,500 | $60,000 | $150,000 | 8 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
19 | TECH3 | 1.2.4 | Delay in development of user interfaces, control algorithms, and hands-on integration and test activities due to Test Bed limitations. | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 3 | 4/2/2020 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Control software not on track for proper maturity by the field season it is needed | Additional outfitting of testBed equipment, additional effort in project out-years | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | $50k equipment investment in TestBed + (0.5FTE x 6mo) to support the investment | $101,750 | $60,000 | $150,000 | 8 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
20 | TECH4 | 1.2 | Loss of key drilling expertise/personnel | Loss of Drill Expertise | 2/21/2022 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | High | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Loss of key personnel | Keep key staff engaged | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Project delays may result in key personnel leaving before new staff have been able to acquire skillset. 0.25FTE x 6mo recruit and train per new employee, assume 4 new employees | $103,500 | $60,000 | $150,000 | 12 | 10 | 20 | |||||||||||||||
21 | TECH5 | 1.2 | Novel string installation - Final down-hole cable design requires the development of new equipment and processes for installation (i.e. New rope reel with coordinated load sharing) | Novel String Installation - Equip | 2/21/2022 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | Field season 3 | Mitigate | Final determination of down hole installation cable | Change request to support new scope | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Define requirements, design, procure, fab/assem/integrate, testing | $80,000 | $60,000 | $120,000 | 8 | 6 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
22 | TECH6 | 1.2 | Unable to dispose of condensate into onsite SES condensate bulb | Unable to dispose of Condensate | 2/21/2022 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS1 | Mitigate | Results of ASC environmental decision | Request additional equipment/ops/resources to transport condensate to outfall and dispose there, or to ship off-site | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Sled and barrell system (5k) + extra handling time adds 1/2 week of full drill team (35k). Additional ASC handling support not captured here. | $49,200 | $15,000 | $75,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
23 | 1.2 Field Season Risks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
24 | ORG4 | 1.2 | Serious FS3 injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities until full accident investigation | Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS3 | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Very High | Very High | Moderate | High | High | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Any number of reasons | Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. Make full plan with the contractor for an accident investigation process ahead of time. | Very Low | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low |
Worst case:drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr (3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season 28*88*525 = 1.3M training = 193k PQ/travel = 244k Another drill season = 1.74M Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k Total = 2M maximum; shorter delays down to 2 weeks could be pictured for a quick moving accident investigation |
$500,000 | $200,000 | $1,100,000 | $2,000,000 | 6 | 2 | 52 | FS3 end | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | ||||||||
25 | ORG5 | 1.2 | Serious FS2 season injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities until full accident investigation is completed | Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS2 | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Very High | Very High | Low | High | High | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS2 | Mitigate | Any number of reasons | Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. | Very Low | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low |
Would try to resolve accident investigation quickly, but worst
case delays seasonal work Scale FS2/FS3 = (16/28 drillers)*1.74M = 1M Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k Total = 1.3M |
$500,000 | $200,000 | $850,000 | $1,500,000 | 6 | 2 | 52 | FS2 end | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | ||||||||
26 | ORG6 | 1.2 | 1.2Serious FS1 season injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities | Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS1 | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS1 | Mitigate | Any number of reasons | Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. | Very Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Low | Low |
Would try to resolve accident investigation quickly, but worst
case delays seasonal work Scale FS1/FS3 = (11/28 drillers)*1.74M = 680k Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k Total = 980k |
$500,000 | $200,000 | $650,000 | $1,100,000 | 6 | 2 | 52 | FS1 end | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | $147,450 | ||||||||
27 | TECH7 | 1.2 | Major Drill Season Equipment Failure such as main hose reel failure, or a stuck drill head losing the cable and hose, or a fire damages the main heating plant, results in season stoppage and additional drilling season. | Major Equipment Failure or Fire | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Diligent Hazards Analysis, risk mitigation planning, and training. Procedures, experienced crew. Spares. Firefighting training. Emergency procedures. | Very Low | Moderate | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
Some scenarios might be recoverable, but many would require an
additional (unavailable) drill season, worst case calculation
here: drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr (3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season 28*88*525 = 1.3M training = 193k PQ/travel = 244k Another drill season = 1.74M Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k; Heating plant $800k Total = 2.8M max, possible range very wide |
$1,000,000 | $300,000 | $1,550,000 | $2,800,000 | 52 | 4 | 104 | FS3 end | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | ||||||||
28 | ORG7 | 1.2.8 | Driller Talent Aquisition and Retention - EHWD drill operation in Antarctica is unique and specific skill-set. Recruiting experienced drillers key for project success | Drillers recruitment | 8/15/2018 | 3/2/2022 | High | High | High | Low | High | High | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Recruitment struggles | Intiate staffing planning and recruitment early. Network with and engage experienced drillers in the search. Develop training plans. Engage collaboration early on for contributed drillers. Allow for flexibility with deployments. | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
Increased salary costs to recruit/entice experience. 16 direct-hires
increased salaries (average) across 2 seasons TECH rate -> ENGR rate, delta $38/hr, 525 hr/season 16*2*38*525 = 640k |
$640,000 | $300,000 | $550,000 | $800,000 | 12 | 8 | 16 | FS2-FS3 end | $54,000 | $54,000 | $54,000 | $54,000 | $54,000 | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | ||||||
29 | TECH8 | 1.2.4 | Insufficient IV&T of Control System results in control failure during drilling delaying drill operations | Control System Problem | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Robust testing in CONUS of sub-assemblies. Complete install in FS2 with full testing. | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | FS3 end | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | |||||||||
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31 | EXT7 | 1.2.3 | Logistics delays in FS1 & FS2 could lead to the need for additional labor in FS2 and FS3 to be ready for drilling in FS3 | Logistics and Cargo | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | PM Feyzi | FS3 | Mitigate | ASC communication in 2022 | Communicate cargo requirements to ASC and NSF as early as possible and monitor. Cargo requirements will be in the SIP and are confirmed by the RSP. | Very Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Low | Low | 30% loss of field season assumed. Cost includes labor and travel | $448,000 | $350,000 | $475,000 | $600,000 | 8 | 6 | 10 | FS1 & FS2 end | $22,400 | $22,400 | $22,400 | $22,400 | $0 | ||||||||
32 | TECH10 | 1.2.2 | Main Heater Failures - Heater failures during drilling operations force drill speed to be decreased, or descope of cold reaming or dust logging | MHP Failures | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Pressure testing in FS1. Full system testing in FS2. React with repairs/replacements, and/or supplement with WISSARD HPUs. | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Extensive failures would potentially add more than 1 week during drill season. Testing in FS1 and FS2 mitigates this. | $98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
33 | TECH11 | 1.2.3 | Tower - Fatigue, overload, or unforeseen circustances results in failure of crescent, sheaves, hoist, or structural components | Tower failure | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Perform detailed structural inspection and maintenance in FS1. Load testing performed during load cell calibration in FS2. Crescent emergency repair kit. | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
34 | TECH12 | 1.2.3 | Drill Head Communication Failure - Communication from drillhead during drilling operations ceases | Drill Head Problems | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Thorough system testing in CONUS. 1x spare drillhead on-site (3 total). Develop Guidelines for "Drilling Blind." | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
35 | TECH13 | 1.2.3 | Hose/Cable Reel Failure - One or both reels develop major motor, level-wind, or technical problem and deemed non-functional. On-site repair required. | Main Reel Failure | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | low | High | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | MDCR rebuild and comprehensive testing in CONUS. DSHR operational tests in FS1 and FS2. | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
36 | TECH14 | 1.2 | Cut/Damaged Drill Hose - Equipment or unknowns damage the main drill hose. | Damaged Drill Hose | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Proper visible flagging and markings installed. There will be 5 spare sections of hose on site in FS3. A procedure for replacing a section of the hose will be reviewed. | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
37 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | TECH15 | 1.2 | Cut/Damaged Drill Cable - Equipment or unknowns end up damaging the main drill cable. | Damaged Drill Cable | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Proper visible flagging and markings installed. Two brand-new cables will be supplied to the Pole for use in FS2 | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
39 | EXT8 | 1.2 | Drilling into obstructions/cables - The tight array is planned in an area with possible "old station" debris | Drill obstructions | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Unknown | GPR scans completed during '19-20 season were inconclusive. Request has been made for a new GPR scan. Firn Holes will be drilled one-year in advance to accommodate potential relocation of holes due to debris. | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 40hr |
$98,400 | $65,000 | $150,000 | 1 | 1 | 2 | FS3 end | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | $10,500 | $0 | |||||||||
40 | TECH16 | 1.2.6 | Drill Hose gets exposed to deep freeze conditions. < -53 C, increased rate of hose failure during drill season. | Frozen Drill Hose | 3/10/2020 | 3/2/2022 | High | Low | Moderate | High | Moderate | High | High | Implementation Mgr | Winter in between FS2 & FS3 | Mitigate | Environmental | Implement hose heating system to heat hose on reel over winter. This was done successfully on Gen1. Keep hose temperature above brittle transition point of -53C. Monitoring will be in place. | Low | Low | Moderate | High | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
Hose failure mode: Blister formation on outside layer, not catastophic.
Drillers trained to identify symptoms and replace immediately.
Individual hose sections can be replaced, spare hose sections
were ordered. If too many hoses fail, cannot drill to full depth. 2-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 80hr |
$196,800 | $100,000 | $250,000 | 2 | 1 | 3 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
41 | TECH17 | 1.2.5 | Motor Drive Problems - New motor drives have unforeseen problems | Motor Drives | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS2 & FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Installation, programing, training, and testing of all motor drives while in CONUS. Installation and testing at NPX season prior to drilling. Train multiple drillers/ Engineers on how to maintain/troubleshoot the Allen Bradley Motor Drives. | Very Low | Very low | Moderate | Very low | Low | Low | Low |
2-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs 8engr + 20tech x 80hr |
$196,800 | $100,000 | $250,000 | 2 | 1 | 4 | FS2 | ||||||||||||||
42 | TECH18 | 1.2.6 | High Pressure Pump Failure - Pump or pump motor fails prior to or during drilling operations | HPP Failure | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Procure additional spare pumps and motors. Provide driller training for field replacement during prior off-ice season. | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1/2 week delay | $49,200 | $20,000 | $80,000 | 1 | 0 | 2 | FS2 & FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
43 | TECH19 | 1.2.6 | Return Water Pump Failure - The RWP fails during drilling operations. | RWP Failure | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Procure spare, develop replacement procedure, train drillers | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1 day delay | $20,000 | $10,000 | $30,000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | FS2 & FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
44 | TECH20 | 1.2.7 | Independent Firn Drill Failure - Serious problems result in the inoperability of the IFD during FS2 | IFD Failure | 12/13/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS2 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Locate and update original plans and equipment (carrot with leaker-circuit) to firn drill using hot water. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1-week delay - longer season (short crew) | $14,057 | $0 | $25,000 | 1 | 0 | 1 | FS2 | ||||||||||||||
45 | TECH21 | 1.2.8 | A majority of the EHWD equipment has been stored/cold-soaked for 6+ years at the South Pole. Risk of old EHWD equipment failure. | Old EHWD Failure | 8/15/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | High | High | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS2 & FS3 | Mitigate | Failure upon followup inspections and testing during FS1. | Thorough and robust testing performed in seasons prior to deep drilling. Identify most-at-risk equipment and procure additional spare parts or refurbish and repair equipment | Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate |
Offseason equipment budget to address (80k) Additional on-ice work in FS2 ~ 2 week delay |
$276,800 | $150,000 | $300,000 | 2 | 2 | 6 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
46 | TECH22 | 1.2.5 | Generators: Cargo delays or insufficient support prevent thorough IV&T prior to use, resulting in failures during use and delays during system testing in FS2 and/or drilling in FS3 | Generator Problems | 2/21/2022 | 3/2/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | FS2 & FS3 | Mitigate | Losistics delays, support concerns | External contractor support. Communication with ASC about timing with specialalized contractor support | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low |
ICU bringing in specialized contractor support to finish repair
on Gen2 and support with final IV&T. All equipment needs to
be on-site at same time. Possibly send Gen2 to NZ. Capture as 2 week delay during drilling season |
$196,800 | $100,000 | $250,000 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
47 | TECH23 | 1.2.9 | Sleds formerly from the 88 South Traverse project cannot be used | Sensor Handling - Sled | 1/15/2021 | 2/8/2022 | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Installation Mgr | prior to FS2 | Mitigate | Support | Collaborate with ASC to find no cost or low cost solutions using on-ice materials if the 88 sleds not available. Request ASC a definite answer by end of 2022 at latest so alternative (including procurement and shipping) can be finalized in advance of FS2. Transport by Comsur & C-17 will be required to deliver materials by early FS2. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Estimates from quotes and off shelf components, estimated on 2 sleds each with 5 AIPs and straps to connect AIPs to sleds and sensor pallets to AIPs. Heel, Toe and labor cost included in estimate. Additional time on ice to set the sleds up. | $35,000 | $32,000 | $40,000 | 3 | 2 | 4 | prior to FS2 | ||||||||||||||
48 | TECH24 | 1.2.9 | Solar Garage cannot be used as testing tent | Sensor Handling - Tent | 1/15/2021 | 2/8/2022 | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Installation Mgr | prior to FS2 | Mitigate | Support | Collaborate with ASC to find no cost or low cost solutions using tents available on ice. Request ASC a definite answer by end of 2022 at latest so alternative (including procurement and shipping) can be finalized in advance of FS2. Transport by Comsur & C-17 will be required to deliver materials by early FS2. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Quote for a similar tent from BigTop. Shipping not included. Additional time on ice to set the tent up in Antarctica. Crew of 5, 4-5 days for a RAC tent, up to 2 weeks, with some crane support. | $50,000 | $45,000 | $55,000 | 3 | 1 | 5 | prior to FS2 | ||||||||||||||
49 | TECH25 | 1.2.10 | Protect xDOM from ESD during staging and during installation. This includes sled transport, the DOM handling facility, and ESD protection while connecting the BCA to the PCA and BCA to Main Cable Assembly. | ESD - Handle + Deploy | 1/15/2021 | 1/24/2022 | Moderate | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Environmental | ESD plan for installation. Bond Tower to GND. Charge bleeder connected to main cable in the spool. Re-examine failure in Gen1. Strict attention to ESD discipline and ESD training. ensure ESD charge neutralization to any cables prior to connecting or disconnecting xDevices | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Single DOM loss would not result in schedule shift or replacement cost. If major systematic problem occurred one week to revisit and fix issues. | $0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | FS3 end | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 | |||||||||||
50 | TECH26 | 1.2.10 | Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in undeploying partially the string and swapping instrumentation/BCAs. | Partial Undeployment of String | 1/15/2021 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Very Low | High | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure | Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips). Undeployment procedure. | Low | Very low | High | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Hole may need to be re-drilled if undeployment took long enough for the hole to be significantly closed. Used 53585/7 = 7655 gallons of fuel and 864 for base (2 days)= 8519 gallons, 25.45$/gallons (2019 price) = $216808. That's low estimate, no labor added assuming time needed can be absorbed in season. High estimate on fuel of 10000 gallons and assume one week extra labor for drillers full team. This includes that repositioning of hose and reels may take longer as operations need go be going backwards compared to drill sequence. ($70,214). Average for Risk Cost Exposure. | $270,761 | $216,808 | $382,900 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | FS3 end |
51 | TECH27 | 1.2.10 | Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in partial loss of string, unknown during deployment | String Partial Loss | 1/15/2021 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Very Low | Very Low | High | Low | Low | Moderate | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure | Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips) | Low | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | No cost or schedule slip as this risk assumes installation team does not know this. Loss of performance only. | $0 | 0 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||||||
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52 | TECH28 | 1.2.10 | Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in total loss of string (string is stuck during drop, or deployment cannot continue and undeployment cannot happen, instrumentation is abandoned) | String Total Loss | 1/15/2021 | 1/25/2022 | Low | High | Very High | Very High | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure | Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips). Contingency time accounted for each installation step in hole lifetime calculation and prescribed drill charts. | Low | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Mitigation greatly reduces probability. String could not be replaced so no cost or schedule risk, only loss of performance. | $0 | 0 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||||||
53 | TECH29 | 1.2.10 | Dust Logger winch failure | Dust Logger Winch | 12/13/2018 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Test Winch and Dust Logger Comms as soon as they are delivered to Pole, and at tower once electrical connections are established. If maulfunction happens prior to Dust Logger run start: establish Abort Time Prior to Start, postpone Dust Logger Run to next (last hole). | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Last hole will need to be made larger to accomodate dust logger run. low estimate of 110 gal (difference between a deep cold ream hole and a hot + log hole) => 110*25.45= $2800. High estimate 10% fuel (800 gal) to account for possible re-ordering of holes. | $2,800 | $2,800 | $20,360 | 1 | 0 | 1 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||
54 | TECH30 | 1.2.10 | String Installation Winch Failure - The TU20 winch fails during installation operations. TU-20 needs to be swapped out | TU-20 Failure | 12/13/2018 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Installation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Inspect and repair both TU-20's to full operation. Create Deployment Cable Swap-Out Procedure. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1-day delay - longer season (short crew) | $ - 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | FS3 end | ||||||||||||||||
55 | 1.3 Deep Ice Sensor Modules | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
56 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | TECH31 | 1.3 | If one of the planned sensor types does not pass FDR as scheduled the project schedule could be severely disrupted | OM FDR | 8/13/2018 | Low | High | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | OM Lead | Until FDR, April 2022 | Mitigate | FDR fails | Design and plan the production capacity of all production facilities with sufficient flexibility to be able to fall back to a different OM type | Low | Low | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Off NSF budget | $ - 0 | $0 | 26 | 8 | 52 | |||||||||||||||||
58 | TECH32 | 1.3.1 | If bubbles remain in the mDOM Optical Gel, the optical sensitivity of the mDOM might worse than expected | mDOM Bubbles | 1/27/2022 | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | mDOM Lead | Until FDR, April 2022 | Mitigate | Design does not meet requirements |
Optimize surface of support structure (use MJF, chemically smoothing,
remove sharp edges) Implement bubbles in simulations and investigate impact on physics Gel-pad mDOM: Will delay the start of series production by several months |
Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Off NSF budget | $ - 0 | $0 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||
59 | EXT9 | 1.3.1 | If electronics parts for the mDOM Mainboard cannot be procured in time, the mDOM production and testing will be delayed | mDOM Electronics Supply Chain | 1/27/2022 | High | Moderate | Low | Low | High | Moderate | Moderate | OM Lead | Until procurement | Mitigate | External |
Continuously monitor market throughout collaboration and centrally
collect information of availability of critical components Place orders / publish calls for tender as early as possible Develop plans for series integration of half-mDOMs, add in mainboards as late as possible |
High | Moderate | Low | Low | High | Moderate | Moderate | Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. | $ - 0 | $0 | 4 | 0 | 52 | |||||||||||||||||
60 | EXT10 | 1.3.1 | If suppliers don't have sufficient capacity to 3D-print mDOM PMT Support Structures, the mDOM production and testing will be delayed | mDOM Support Structure Supply Chain | 1/27/2022 | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | OM Lead | Until procurement | Mitigate | External | Foresee production of PMT Support Structures in several batches that can be tendered to different manfufacturers | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. | $ - 0 | $0 | 4 | 0 | 26 | |||||||||||||||||
61 | TECH33 | 1.3.1 | If mDOM series production does not reach the projected rate of 9 mDOMs / site / week, the shipping date for the mDOMs for Strings 87+88 will be missed | mDOM Production Yield | 1/27/2022 | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | mDOM Lead | Until OM shipping | Mitigate | Technical problems |
Produce mDOM test batches at DESY and MSU as early as possible
to excercise integration and FAT procedures see also risk ORG5 |
Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. | $ - 0 | $0 | 4 | 0 | 26 | |||||||||||||||||
62 | EXT11 | 1.3 | If integrated sensors have to be stored for too long before deployment, the vacuum seal might leak and re-sealing might become necessary | Sensor Long-Term Storage | 1/27/2022 | Low | High | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | OM Lead | Until deployment | Mitigate |
Regularly monitor the inside pressure of a sample of stored sensors Store sensors such that they are accessible for monitoring (not McM?) |
Low | Low | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | If stored sensors are accessible for regular monitoring, the problem can be detected early and sensors can be un-sealed and re-sealed at a rate of about 5 sensors / day. Off project cost | $ - 0 | $0 | 8 | 4 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||
63 | TECH34 | 1.3.2 | If during D-Egg FAT a high failure rate or design flaw is found, reworking D-Eggs will lead to significant cost and schedule slippage | D-Egg FAT Yield | 1/27/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | D-Egg Lead | Until FAT | Mitigate |
Commence D-Egg FAT as early as possible Work closely with D-Egg team on executing and interpreting FAT |
Low | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Even a minor re-work of all (300) sealed D-Eggs is a major undertaking, requiring un-sealing, re-sealing and re-testing all modules. Off project cost | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | 26 | 13 | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||
64 | EXT12 | 1.3.5 | If one of the Special Devices is not delivered, the string design must be updated and verified | Special Device Cancellation | 1/15/2022 | 1/27/2022 | Very High | Low | Low | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | OM Lead, Deployment Lead | Until deployment readiness review | Mitigate | Start early developing contingency plans how to replace or bypass missing Special Devices during deployment | Moderate | Very low | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Can be managed in close to real time, perhaps a couple of days schedule slip on the ice or slight risk of degraded performance | $ - 0 | $ - 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
65 | TECH35 | 1.3.3 | Because PDOM pressure vessels are re-furbished from Gen1, handling and resealing with new PCA may introduce subtle flaws that could cause PV flooding after deployment. | PDOM PV leak | 1/15/2022 | 1/27/2022 | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | PDOM Lead | Until after freeze-in | Mitigate | No comms with deployed PDOM | Inspection of sealing surfaces, comparison of Gen1 and Gen2 PCA sealing surfaces, High Pressure testing. | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | If detected before deployment of remaining strings, a work stoppage for analysis of the problem might be required Costed as a week delay. Should not happen if PDOM design verification is properly done | $ 70,000.00 | $ 20,000.00 | $ 72,500.00 | $ 125,000.00 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
66 | EXT18 | 1.3.1 | If mDOM planned main board electronics parts remain unavailable, a few mainboard redesign will be required: this includes hardware design effort (off of the NSF budget) and software & firmware effort (on NSF budget). | mDOM redesign | 4/6/2022 | 4/6/2022 | High | Moderate | High | Low | High | High | Moderate | mDOM lead | Calendar 2022 | Mitigate | Parts delivery delays/unavailable parts | Begin planning and design work ahead of risk trigger on the new mainboard design | High | Moderate | High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | On the NSF budget would need 1 FTE-year of software effort and 1/2 FTE-year of firmware work. | $ 240,000.00 | $ 160,000.00 | $ 320,000.00 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
67 | TECH36 | 1.3 | Because NPX is very dry, sensor electronics could be damaged by ESD during NPX testing or deployment | xDOM Electronics ESD Damage | 1/15/2022 | 1/27/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | OM Lead, Deployment Lead | Until deployment | Mitigate | Modules failures, procedure errors during deployment | Employ appropriate internal ESD protection circuitry in the xDOM and ICM. Ensure that ESD mitigation is used on floors, people, and equipment at NPX. Ensure charge neutralization is emplloyed by procedure and equipment during NPX testing. Ensure that charge neutralization is present between electrical cables, TOS and xDOMs as they are being deployed. | Very Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Low | If process problems with ESD at South Pole, a work stoppage for renewing procedures might be required. Costed as a week delay. | $ 70,000.00 | $ 20,000.00 | $ 72,500.00 | $ 125,000.00 | 1 | 0 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
68 | 1.4 Comms, Power, and Timing (CPT) Distribution System | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | TECH37 | 1.4.1.1 | Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to revise the main cable design, which will require additional design and testing effort and delay the start of production. | Main cable design iteration | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | High | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | CPT Lead | June 2022 (PSL crescent test) | Accept (near-future) | Unsatisfactory prototype test | N/A | Low | High | Low | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Schedule impact depends on magnitude of changes required -- an additional prototype cycle could take 1/2 year, while minor changes could be completed in a few weeks. Cost impact limited to on-project engineering labor, likely ~1 FTE-month | $ 15,000 | $0 | $30,000 | 12 | 6 | 26 | |||||||||||||||
70 | TECH38 | 1.4.1 | Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to add a separate co-deployed strength member to the Downhole Cable Assembly, which will increase deployment complexity and require additional equipment. | Strength member needed | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Moderate | High | Low | Very low | High | Moderate | Low | CPT Lead, Deill Lead, Deployment Lead | June 2022 (PSL crescent test) | Mitigate | Unsatisfactory prototype test | Begin preparing design for co-deployed rope and test prototype in advance of cable tests | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Estimated cost of ropes ($18k/string) is largely offset by reduced need for YaleGrips (approx. 60 omitted per string @ $270 each). Cost of additional winch etc. unknown. Time required for design of second winch system unknown. Rough guesses inserted. | $ 25,000 | $10,000 | $60,000 | 4 | 2 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
71 | TECH39 | 1.4.1 | Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to redesign the string hardware and deployment procedures, which will require additional design effort, prototyping, and equipment testing. | Deployment procedures | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | Moderate | Very Low | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Deployment Lead | June 2022 (PSL crescent test) | Accept (near-future) | Unsatisfactory prototype test | N/A | Low | Moderate | Very Low | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Design work plus prototyping/testing | $ 5,000 | $2,500 | $10,000 | 6 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
72 | TECH40 | 1.4.1.1 | Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to select an alternate Main Cable supplier, which will necessitate project support for cost and/or impact communications and timing performance | Alternate cable | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | Very high | Very high | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | CPT Lead | June 2022 (PSL crescent test) | Mitigate | Unsatisfactory prototype test | Pursue development of alternate suppliers, procure cable samples where feasible | Very Low | High | Very High | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Low | Likely to be delays in switching to new main cable supplier, most vendors are less responsive than Hexatronic. | $ 1,500,000 | $300,000 | $3,500,000 | 20 | 4 | 30 | |||||||||||||||
73 | TECH41 | 1.4.1.1 | Because a MCA prototype has not yet been built, the overall diameter of the cable may be larger than estimated and not fit on the currently planned shipping/deployment spool, which will require redesign of the spool, cable, and/or deployment procedure and equipment | Cable too large | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Very low | Moderate | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Drill Lead | Until first MCA is complete (Aug 2023) | Accept | Prototype cable diameter is too large. Breakouts are too large | Minimize cable diameter to preserve room on spool for breakout connections | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Design work, larger spools, potentially different equipment. | $ 20,000 | $10,000 | $40,000 | 8 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||
74 | TECH42 | 1.4.1.1 | Because a MCA prototype has not yet been built, the overall weight of the cable may be larger than estimated and exceed the limit of the currently planned shipping pallet and/or aircraft, which will require redesign of the cable, spool, or shipping pallet. | Cable too heavy | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Very low | Moderate | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | CPT Lead | April 2022 (production of prototype cable) | Accept | Prototype cable is too heavy | N/A | Very Low | Moderate | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Possible redesign of shipping pallet, requiring additional liaison with ASC and drill lead | $ 30,000 | $7,500 | $45,000 | 16 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||
75 | TECH43 | 1.4.1.2 | Because a BCA supplier has not been identified, we may need to make significant design changes, which will increase costs and could delay production of other cable elements | BCA design iteration | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | High | Moderate | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | CPT Lead | Aug 2022 (start of prototype production) | Mitigate | Issues during preliminary design | Engage with potential suppliers as early as possible | Low | High | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Restarted design phase could take several months, require several FTE-month of engineering effort | $ 25,000 | $5,000 | $75,000 | 8 | 2 | 26 | |||||||||||||||
76 | TECH44 | 1.4.2 | Because of connector supply chain disruptions, we may not be able to ship the SCAs or SJBs on the scheduled vessel, which will require them to be shipped ComSur the following year or eliminate the option of staging at McMurdo the season before installation. | SCA delay | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Very low | Low | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | CPT Lead | Until connectors are received | Mitigate | Connector delivery delayed beyond Aug 2022 | Order connectors as early as possible (order placed May 2021). Complete first cables using Gen1 leftover connectors to validate assembly procedures. | Very Low | Low | Moderate | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Cost of Comsur shipping estimated based on past shipments of large cables. Schedule impact relates to cable shipping date | $ 7,500 | $6,000 | $15,000 | 4 | 1 | 24 | |||||||||||||||
77 | EXT13 | 1.4.3 | Because of electronics supply chain disruptions, there may be delays in production of rev1 and/or rev2 FieldHubs, which would reduce the number of prototyping cycles available before we need to enter production. | FieldHub delay | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Moderate | High | Very Low | very low | High | Low | Low | FieldHub Lead | June 2023 (start of FieldHub production) | Mitigate | Delays in production of rev1/2 FieldHubs | Finalize selection of FPGA and other long-lead components as early as possible, order as soon as practicable. Eliminate prototyping cycles rather than delaying production (FieldHub design is already quite mature) | Moderate | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Elimination of prototyping cycle removes schedule impact at cost of slightly elevated technical risk | $ - 0 | $0 | $0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
78 | EXT14 | 1.4.4.1 | Because the vendor identified for the timing and communications hardware used in the FieldHub was recently acquired, the interface to the hardware may change or the product may be retired, which will require additional hardware development effort to change to a different timing node. | White Rabbit supplier | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | High | Low | very low | Moderate | Low | Low | CPT Infrastructure Lead | Spring 2023 | Mitigate | Substantial changes to baseline timing solution | Identify alternate suppliers or alternate timing fanout designs that can be implemented using parts currently on hand | Low | moderate | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Alternative designs identified. Additional effort of 1±1 FTE-month required for design. | $ 15,000 | $0 | $30,000 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
79 | ORG9 | 1.4.4.2 | Because of increased mDOM and DEgg power consumption and remaining uncertainties around maximum device power consumption, the power distribution system may need to be redesigned for a higher DC voltage, which will require additional development effort. | DOM power limit | 1/27/2022 | 3/1/2022 | High | High | Low | Very low | High | Moderate | Low | CPT Infrastructure Lead | April 2022 | Redesign | final DOM power consumption measurements | Due to high risk probability, terminate work on baseline design and switch to new design with lower power density | very high | Very low | Low | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Additional capEx cost of $40k. Reduced labor required for power monitoring system, some additional labor for power fanout (~40 hrs). Approximately one month schedule delay for timing system and FieldHubs | $ 50,000 | $40,000 | $65,000 | 4 | 3 | 8 | |||||||||||||||
80 | TECH45 | 1.4.3 | Because MCA procurement is not finalized, we may have insufficient bandwidth to transmit all data to ICL using the planned cables and comms protocol, which will require additional software or firmware engineering and may reduce science capabilities. | Comms bandwidth | 8/18/2018 | 3/1/2022 | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Software Lead | Until cable procurement is finalized | Mitigate | Inability to identify supplier for cables with planned comms quality | Design protocol for efficiency and robustness, deploy all elements to NTS for integration testing, begin firmware development early if needed; Consider In-OM hit reductions | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | Add engineering effort - 1 FTE yr - to develop better communications protocol. Development schedule permits completion before deployment | $200,000 | $150,000 | $300,000 | 0 | 0 | 26 | |||||||||||||||
81 | TECH52 | 1.4.1.1 | Because MCA breakout terminations are a custom solution, the costs of breakout installation may exceed the MSU commitment, requiring project support for MCA costs | Breakout costs | 3/28/2022 | High | Very low | High | Very low | Low | High | Low | CPT Lead | Until MCA procurement is finalized: PY4 & PY5 | Mitigate | Final bids for breakout installation exceed available MSU funds | Provide cable samples to multiple potential vendors, explore intial designs and negotiate cost reductions with multiple vendors | High | Low | High | Very low | Moderate | High | Low | High cost estimate based on initial bids from two suppliers (JDR and HGS), cost exposure reflects some assumed cost reductions. Schedule risk reflects possibility of extended design phase | $400,000 | $0 | $750,000 | 0 | 0 | 24 | ||||||||||||||||
82 | TECH46 | 1.4.1.4 | Because the planned YaleGrips have not been demonstrated to work with the planned MCA in a pull test, we may need to increase the YaleGrip tail lengths, which will increase costs | YaleGrip size | 2/15/2022 | 3/1/2022 | Low | Very low | Moderate | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | CPT lead | Until final cable design review | Watch | Unsatisfactory pull test with prototype cable | N/A | Low | very low | Moderate | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | Replace 461 of YG 944506ET20 quoted @$240 with YG 944507ET22 quoted @$410. Possible longer lead time for custom extended tail grips | $78,000 | $75,000 | $85,000 | 0 | 0 | 12 | |||||||||||||||
83 | EXT15 | 1.4.1.1 | Because of supply chain disruptions, we may face delays in production of prototypes and production Main Cables, which will require alternate shipping methods and/or eliminate the option of staging the MCAs at McMurdo the season before deployment. | Cable delay | 1/15/2021 | 3/1/2022 | Moderate | High | High | Very low | High | High | Low | CPT Lead | PY4 & PY5 | Mitigate | Production is delayed | Offer procurement assistance for long-lead items. Invesitgate and qualify alternative suppliers | Low | High | High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Prototypes for qualifying alt. suppliers ~$75k each. Long-lead procurement assistance risks ~$100k. Few-month scale delays still possible | $200,000 | $50,000 | $225,000 | $400,000 | 12 | 0 | 40 | 2021 | $180,000 | $180,000 | $180,000 | $0 | $0 | ||||||||
84 | 1.5 Characterization and Calibration System | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | EXT16 | 1.5.2.6 | Mini Mainboard may be delayed due to components availailability/supply chain issues | MMB delay | 1/27/2022 | 2/28/2022 | Moderate | High | Moderate | High | High | Moderate | High | 1.5 L2 Lead Williams | 2022, calibration module DVT and production | Mitigate | Parts delivery delays/unavailable parts | try and obtain components separately | Low | High | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Some components have been ordered. FPGAs are a concern. Some vendors have been suggesting shopping for parts in China in person | $40,000 | $20,000 | $60,000 | 26 | 8 | 52 | |||||||||||||||
86 | EXT17 | 1.5.3.5 | Dust Logger winch cannot be borrowed from IDP, or IDP is unable to fix it, and a new winch needs to be procured | Dust Logger Winch Procurement | 1/27/2022 | 2/28/2022 | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | 1.5 L2 Lead Williams | 2022 discussions with IDP, 2024 testing | Early communications | Approval delay at IDP, lack of engineering support at IDP | Working with IDP to secure the loan of this equipment. | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Risk is retired after testing winch with logger (Spring/Summer 2024) | $145,000 | $140,000 | $160,000 | 8 | 6 | 10 | |||||||||||||||
87 | 1.6 M&O Data Systems integration | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | TECH47 | 1.6.1.1 | If optical sensor or calibration device software interfaces specifications are delayed will impact DAQ software development | DAQ software interface delays | 8/17/2018 | Low | Moderate | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | Sensor software delivery milestones | Better communications | Delivery delays | Work closely with Sensor and Calibration devices L2s to ensure software interfaces are developed and adhered to. Interface specification workshop | Low | Low | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Minor cost impact, mostly delays to schedule. Estimate 20 week possible delay, and 0.1 FTE*yr | $20,000 | $0 | $20,000 | $40,000 | 20 | 0 | 30 | |||||||||||||||
89 | TECH48 | 1.6.1.1 | Because the hit rate from OM devices exceeds the rate available in the DAQ trigger system, and triggers/hits could potentially be missed and physics events missed. | DAQ trigger too high | 8/17/2018 | 1/25/2022 (increased probability) | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | 1.6 L2 lead | DAQ software testing | Mitigate | DAQ trigger testing failures | Refactor DAQ trigger algorithms to allow for higher rates, including developing noise rejection methods or look to reduce rate of trigger primitives from modules via cuts | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Low | Would require potential refactoring of DAQ architecture to support additional rates. If realized, could be an 0.5FTE*yr and 20 week delay | $80,000 | $40,000 | $80,000 | $120,000 | 20 | 10 | 30 | ||||||||||||||
90 | TECH49 | 1.6.1.1 | If the per-PMT noise rates in mDOMs exceed design specifications, the in-OM data processing and noise mitigation algorithms may not have enough in-OM resources and data could potentially be lost. | mDOM noise rates overwhelm MCU | 1/25/2022 | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | 1.6 L2 lead | integrated mDOM testing | Mitigate | MCU can't keep up with rate of mDOM PMTs | Use FPGA firmware resources to offload MCU; develop more CPU efficient feature extraction algorithms | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Minimal cost impacts or schedule impacts: these mitigations are already planned, just need to retune and understand physics impact | $10,000 | $0 | $7,500 | $15,000 | 6 | 0 | 10 | |||||||||||||||
91 | TECH50 | 1.6.1.1 | If an in-ice device could be identified as the wrong type at boot up, improper hardware configuration could be used, leading to damage of components. | MCU SW Config ID failure | 1/25/2022 | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | FAT testing of modules | Mitigate | Module type incorrectly ID by HW selection and hardware systems potentially damaged | Ensure robust testing of all mainboards as early as possible to ID issues with this key circuit; implement additional checks against backup IDs in scratch nvram | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Addiitional internal software safety checks might be needed. 0.25 FTE*yr, 12 weeks | $40,000 | $20,000 | $40,000 | $60,000 | 6 | 3 | 9 | |||||||||||||||
92 | TECH51 | 1.6.1.1 | If the total data rate from all connected devices exceeds the total available processing bandwidth, the FieldHub will be unable to keep up with data transfer from all connected devices and data could be lost. | FieldHub software unable to keep up | 1/25/2022 | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | FieldHub full scale testing at NTS | Mitigate | Fully loaded field hub can't process all hits from ~100 connected DOMs | Scale tests on pre-production field hub units, investigate non-USB transfer mechanisms, parallelism in SBC design. | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Potentially need to investigate alternative data transfer methods internally, or additional parallelism. Work generally off-Upgrade funding, but potential if M&O resources overwehlmed. | $25,000 | $0 | $20,000 | $40,000 | 20 | 5 | 30 | |||||||||||||||
93 | Opportunities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | OPP1 | 1.1 | If contributed drillers (from collaborating institutions) are provided as in-kind contributions, the project can save seasonal driller labor costs. | Contributed drillers | 3/8/2022 | Moderate | Very low | High | Very low | Low | High | Low | 1.1 PM | Ahead of FS1 | Opportunity | Volunteers from the collaboration | Will advertise it widely within the collaboration. Fixed FS years will help significantly. | Moderate | Very low | High | Very low | Low | High | Low | Contributed drillers (up to 10 person*seasons) replace $50000 in direct costs. | $250,000 | $100,000 | $500,000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
95 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | Retirement home + Deleted risks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | RET1 | 1.6.4 | If there are delays in design of the IDF, computing infrastructure equipment ordering and shipping could be delayed - retire | IDF late design | 8/17/2018 | 7/4/2019 | 7/4/2019 | Low | Low | Moderate | Very low | Low | Moderate | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | IDF facility design delivery | Mitigate | IDF Design delays | Separate network/computing design elements in the IDF design process, preventing delays in other areas from largely impacting 1.6 | Low | Low | Low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Minor cost impact. The IFD is no longer being used in the IceCube Upgrade Project. | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||
98 | RET2 | 1.6.1.1 | If optical sensor or calibration device software interfaces specifications are delayed will impact DAQ software development Includes ICM Firmware Development. This includes the delivery of the CPT infrastructure. (Combined Risks TECH15 and TECH16) COVID-19 | DAQ software interface delays Risks: 3, 10 | 8/17/2018 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Moderate | Very low | Very low | high | Low | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | Sensor software delivery milestones | Better communications | Delivery delays | Work closely with Sensor and Calibration devices L2s to ensure software interfaces are developed and adhered to. Interface specification workshop. Prioritize remote development efforts, such as FAT software readiness using networked main boards. | high | moderate | low | low | High | Moderate | Moderate | ||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | RET3 | 1.6.1 | If there are delays in delivery of CPT infrastructure for testing (Field Hubs, SJBs, NTS) then the development of Online Systems will be delayed | CPT milestone delays | 8/17/2018 | 1/25/2022 | Low | Moderate | Very low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | 1.6 L2 lead | CPT Hardware delivery date | Better communications | Delivery delays | Work closely with CPT L2 and L3s to ensure at least partially hardware delivery for development and testing | Low | Low | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | Minor | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
100 | RET4 | 1.5.1.1 | If there are delays in implementation of common calibration database for production calibration, calibration constants may not be stored in easily usable condition | Production calibration database | 8/17/2018 | 2/28/2022 | Low | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | 1.5.1 L3 Lead Williams | Module Production | Better communications | Deliverable delay in 1.5.1.1 | Coordinate early between module production sites and 1.5.1 L3 lead but add software labor if needed in PY4-PY5. | Low | Low | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | 2 months software developer effort |
101 | RET5 | 1.5.1.2 | Different module designs may delay implementation of Flashers and other calibration devices,DOM calibration software and interface to DAQ/experiment control | DOMcal equivalent | 8/17/2018 | 2/28/2022 | Low | Low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Moderate | 1.5.1 L3 Lead Williams | Module deployment | Better communications | Deliverable delay in 1.5.1.2 | Be pro-active on module calibration implementation and on the software and hardware implementation of the collection of module calibration information; additional SW development may be necessary by PY4 at latest. | Low | Low | Very low | Very low | Low | Low | Low | 2 months software developer effort | ||||||||||||||||||||
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102 | RET6 | 1.3 | If glass spheres have higher than expected radioactive contamination, then quality of optical module data suffers | Bad glass | 8/2/2018 | 2/22/2022 | High | Very low | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | High | OM Lead | Before mDOM / D-Egg FDR | Mitigate | Test failures | Monitor manufacturing, test samples at prototype stage. Some effort may be necessary to handle additional bandwidth in sensor firmware. | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Additional engineering effort to mitigate - 0.5 FTE yr | ||||||||||||||||||||
103 | RET7 | 1.2.2 | Capstone Microturbine Generators not performing as necessary. Could slow drilling season. No longer applicable | Microturbines | 8/2/2018 | 4/4/2019 | 3/1/2019 | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | High | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | Until delivery | Mitigate | Performance | Purchase of additional generator unit after drill IVT (PY4) in S Pole environment. The microturbines will not be utilized in Upgrade. | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Cost of additional C200 cabinet (REMOVE) | $199,800 | $9,990 | $49,950 | ||||||||||||||||
104 | RET8 | 1.2.8.5 | Discharge of CO2 Fire Suppression System-Asphyxiation - Retire | CO2 Discharge | 10/9/2019 | 10/9/2019 | 12/2/2020 | Low | High | High | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Implementation Mgr | 21/22 and 22/23 | Mitigate | Fire or Accident |
1. Disconnect CO2 System. |
Very Low | Very low | Very low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | ||||||||||||||||||||
105 | RET9 | 1.2.8 | If logistics preclude the delivery of shipments for major components, then an additional season might be required. These components are typically: the Drill Hose, Drill Cable, Systems Shipments, DOM, Special Devices, and Surface Cables. COVID-19 | Season delay Risks: 4,5, 6, 8, 9 | 8/2/2018 | 4/2/2020 | 2/2/2022 | high | Moderate | Moderate | Very low | High | High | Low | PM Feyzi | During 2022-2023 Pole season | Mitigate | Problem during season | 1. Mitigate underlying reasons for Pole season issues, financial contingency to support additional season. 2. Ship Drill Hose from a C-17, rather than traverse it. 3. Put Drill Cable on a C-17 and ship it to Pole 21-22 season, rather than vesseling it to MCM. 4. To reduce risk in 21-22 Shipments, expedite the completion of remote Design Reviews to add some to the equipment schedules. 5. The main cable and DOMs could withstand a 6-month delay inschedule with no delivery impact. Continue with main cable engineering tasks to keep up with production scheduling. 6. Finalize documentation, firmware, and protype design work as much as possible, remotely. Set-up orders for components. Get a head start on the later design work. | moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Cost of additional seasonal drill and deployment crew for partial season, assuming first season not total miss. | |||||||||||||||||||
106 | RET10 | 1.1.1.1 | If project office is not able to closely track international finances, then those cost controls may not succeed, causing schedule delays. | In-kind tracking issues | 8/2/2018 | 4/1/2020 | Moderate | High | Moderate | Low | High | Moderate | Moderate | PM Feyzi | Throughout project execution. | Mitigate | Milestones of in-kind contributions missed. | Maintain milestones for in-kind detailed tracking by L2 cost account manager. | Low | Low | High | Low | Low | Moderate | Low | L2 cost account managers may need additional effort to develop and track milestones. Model as one additional month of key program staff per year for all project years. | $127,181 | $6,359 | $31,795 | PY2 | PY4 | |||||||||||||||
107 | RET11 | 1.1.3.2 | Winter Storage DNF Failure - McMurdo hose storage heat failure, or NPX drill head storage heater/power failure. Duplicate | DNF Failure | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Very low | High | High | Very low | Moderate | Low | Low | Haugen | 21/22 or 22/23 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Work with ASC to develop back-up plan in the event of long-term power failure. If there is a major power failure at Pole during the winter, the Winterover staff will make corrections ASAP. | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Low | Low | Low | |||||||||||||||||||||
108 | RET12 | 1.1.3.1 | Domestic/International Shipping Delays - Equipment being shipped to PTH, or via vessel are delayed en route. Duplicate | Shipping Delays | 12/13/2018 | 1/16/2019 | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Haugen | 21/22 or 22/23 | Mitigate | Poor performance during the Production phase for Upgrade instrumentation. | Schedule CONUS shipments of most critical items with additional time. Plan vessel/traverse shipments with a backup LC130 fly-in plan. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Add cost for shipping via air to CHC. | ||||||||||||||||||||
109 | RET13 | 1.1.1 | If we do not find a suitable PM, reviews will be delayed and budgets may not be well controlled. Retire | PM job | 8/2/2018 | 7/1/2019 | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Very low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | PI Hanson | PY1 | Mitigate | Job search failure | More broadly advertise, raise salary, empower interim and deputy PM | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Very Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Cost of higher PM salary over 4.5 yr | $51,508 | $12,877 | $25,754 | |||||||||||||||||
110 | RET14 | 1.3.1 | Opportunity to switch from Hammamatsu to HZC PMTs. HZC tubes are larger and less costly. | Better PMTs at Lower Cost | 10/1/2018 | 3/23/2019 | High | Very Low | Very High | moderate | Low | High | High | 1.3 LEAD Karg | 1st Half 2019 | Comparison Study | Result of Study | HZC tubes appear to meet general requirements. Purchase order using new money from KIT will allow Hamamatsu or HZC tube options. Cost impact is within the KIT budget. No remaining risk/opportunity on the NSF end of the project. | Cost savings and impacts are in the budgets and schedules now. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
111 | RET15 | 1.3.1 | Hamamatsu starts production of PMTs plus HV bases before full base testing is completed | Hamamatsu production | 12/20/2019 | 12/20/2019 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Timo | First half of 2020 | Mitigate | Test failures | 1. Work with Hamamatsu for a partial prodution plan to minimize cost impact if different base required. 2. Improve communications between project and Hamamatsu. 3. Expedite testing. | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | |||||||||||||||||||||
112 | RET16 | 1.3.1 1.3.2 | If there is an earthquake in Japan, PMT manufacturing could be severely disrupted | Quake PMTs | 8/2/2018 | Low | High | High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | OM lead | Until delivery | Mitigate | Earthquake | Alternate PMTs (from Chinese company HZC) could be qualified, cadence of acquisition checked to keep surplus on hand | Low | Low | Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Off NSF budget | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
113 | RET17 | 1.4.4.2 | Because of limited electrical infrastructure in ICL, we may need to redesign the power distribution system to reduce power density, which will require additional development effort | ICL power | 1/27/2022 | 2/3/2022 | High | Moderate | Moderate | very low | High | High | Low | CPT Infrastructure Lead | Incorporated into rebaselined plan | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
114 | RET18 | 1.1 | The Upgrade Project is funded for only 5 strings. | Only 5 Strings | 1/9/2019 | 4/4/2019 | 3/1/2019 | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | Hanson | 21/22 and 22/23 | Mitigate | Receipt of funding for only 5 strings | Receipt of KIT Funding to cover the additional 2 strings. | Very Low | Very Low | Very Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | The KIT Funding is pretty much a given. Risk Exposure Cost is the price of 2 cBLES. | |||||||||||||||||||
115 | RET19 | 1.3.1 | If other experiments (KM3NeT, Hyper-K) purchase Hamamatsu 3-inch PMTs in the same time frame as us, Hamamatsu's production capacitites might be insufficient to complete mDOM production in time | mDOM PMT | 8/13/2018 | Moderate | High | Low | Low | High | Moderate | Moderate | mDOM lead | Until delivery | Mitigate | Procurement fails | Qualify alternate PMT manufacturers; keep close contact with Hamamatsu and responsibles from other experiments | Very Low | High | Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Off NSF budget | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||
116 | RET20 | 1.1 | Inability to deploy a full crew to the South Pole for the 2022-2023 Season due to USAP cancelations | Crew deployment Risk 2 | 4/3/2020 | 4/3/2020 | 2/1/2022 | High | High | Moderate | Low | High | High | Moderate | PM FF | Drill Season 2020-2021 | Mitigate | Corona Virus | Work with ASC to expedite travel and qualification procedures. Work with a smaller crew if needed at reduced capacity and scope. | High | High | Moderate | Very Low | High | High | Low | A large majority of the hot water drill repair work is scheduled for the 2020-2021 season If we are unable to complete this work on-time, the drill/SES may not be ready for full system testing in the 2021-2022 season, and not ready for the drilling of the 7 holes in the 2022-2023 season. | |||||||||||||||||||
117 | RET21 | Combined into TECH7, formerly TECH9, now RET21. Major Fire damage to drill infrastructure - Main Heating Plant | MHP Fire | 10/9/2019 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Fire in a Hot MDS. | 1. Fire Extinguishers 2. Heat Rise Indicator to DCC 3. Smoke Detectors to DCC 4. CO Monitors to DCC 5. Routine checks 6. Training 7. Hardware Safety Mechanisms | Very Low | Very Low | Very Low | Very Low | Low | Low | Low |
drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr (3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season 28*88*525 = 1.3M training = 193k PQ/travel = 244k Another drill season = 1.74M Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k New MHP ~ $750k Total = 2.8M Would need to C17 and LC130 the MHP down Alt option = WISSARD HPU modules |
$2,800,000 | $2,000,000 | $2,450,000 | $2,900,000 | 52 | 52 | 104 | FS3 end | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | $368,625 | ||||||||
118 | RET22 | 1.2 | Unable to secure full competent team of planned contributed drillers (formerly ORG3), all drillers are in the cost plan | Contributed Drillers | 3/1/2022 | 3/2/2022 | High | High | High | Moderate | High | High | High | PM | FS2 & FS3 | Watch | Unable to secure commitments prior to FS2 | Secure commitments early, starting before FS1. Ramp up recruitment starting in FS1 and retain same people through FS3 | Moderate | Moderate | High | Low | Moderate | High | Moderate | Need to direct-hire drillers to fill-in planned contributed positions. Est. 10 positions across all FSs @ tech rate ~ $44k per driller | $440,000 | $350,000 | $500,000 | 4 | 2 | 6 | ||||||||||||||
119 | RET23 | 1.2.3 | Combined into TECH7+11, this risk, formerly ORG8, is along with the other risks down at the 1% level, even combining them, they end up in the VERY LOW level. During hot-water drilling the main drill head is stuck or frozen-in due to hole constriction or operator error. If not mitigated this could lead to partial loss of season. | Stuck Drill | 8/15/2018 | 3/2/2022 | Low | Very High | Very High | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Low | Implementation Mgr | FS3 | Mitigate | Technical problems or Operator Error | Provide robust operator training. Assure hole measuring devices are accurate and reliable. Develop procedure to re-ream narrow areas in hole to assure minimum diameter is maintained. Drill conservatively if possible, purchase additional hose segments and drill head if season appears to be at risk. | Very Low | High | High | Low | Low | Low | Low |
drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr (3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season 28*88*525 = 1.3M training = 193k PQ/travel = 244k Another drill season = 1.74M Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k New Drill hose ~ $1.2M, New Drill cable ~ $350k Total = 3.6M Low estimate: stuck at shallow depth, recoverable season, delay of 2 weeks |
$500,000 | $196,800 | $3,600,000 | 52 | 52 | 104 | FS3 end | |||||||||||||
120 | Notes: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
121 | 1. Risk ID is type of risk and then count up serially. Types of risk are Technical, External, Organizational, and Project Management. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
122 | 2. Risk Description is a complete sentence. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
123 | 3. Risk Title is a very brief description of the risk that might be used in normal conversation. Not sure if we need this. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
124 | 4. Risk Handling Approach / Response is either Mitigate (actions required), Watch, Accept, Avoid or Research. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
125 | 5. Column headers in green are directly from LFN March 2017 Risk Register template. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
126 | 6. Technical risks are related to requirements, technology, interfaces, performance and quality. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
127 | 7. External risks are related to suppliers, | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
128 | 8. Organizational risks are related to project dependencies, logistics, resources, budget, etc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
129 | 9. Project Management risks are related to planning, schedule, estimation, controls, communications, etc. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
130 | 10. Risk trigger identifies the risk symptoms or warning signs. It indicates that a risk has occurred or is about to occur. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
131 | 11. Assign probabilities and impacts following guidance in tables on respective sheets. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
132 | 12. Risk score is determined from table in 'Scoring' sheet | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
133 | 13. Risk in red is a risk which exceeds the scope of the project, and is NOT included in the risk Monte Carlo or total risk costing. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
134 | 14. Risks in blue are logistics-related risks, highlighted so they can be analyzed separately. |
A | B | C |
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1 | Date | Modified by | Description of changes made |
2 | 17-Jan-19 | J Haugen | Added Change Log tab to track changes made to the Risk Register |
3 | 6-Feb-19 | M. Zernick | Corrected some formulas/Completed analysis for J. Haugen Risks. |
4 | 11-Feb-19 | Zernick/Hanson | Costed Opportunity OPP1. Re-analyzed Risk PM2. Added Average Estimate Column. |
5 | 15-Feb-19 | M. Zernick | Updated PY Remaining Contingency columns to include AVG. Risk Cost. Corrected some earlier risk cost calculations. |
6 | 19-Mar-19 | M. Zernick | Retired the Micro-turbine Risk: EXT1. Retired 5 Holes Only Risk: ORG 7 |
7 | 20-Mar-19 | M. DuVernois | Minor edits for style and fixed a couple of calculation errors. |
8 | 21-Mar-19 | T. DeYoung | Reviewed, no changes |
9 | 23-Mar-19 | T. Karg | Reviewed, no changes |
10 | 23-Mar-19 | M. DuVernois | Edited HZC opportunity. Retired it. |
11 | 28-Mar-19 | D. Williams | Reviewed, no changes |
12 | 28-Mar-19 | E.Blaufuss | Reviewed, no changes |
13 | 31-Mar-19 | M. Zernick | Reviewed ORG4. No changes. |
14 | 4-Apr-19 | M. Zernick | Revised Drill Risks as per the 04/03/2019 Drill Risk Meeting. Hid "AVG Cost Column." Changed Drill Lead to Drill MGR. Added Revison Dates. |
15 | 26-Jun-19 | M.Zernick | Reviewed ORG4. No changes. (WBS 1.1.2.1) |
16 | 26-Jun-19 | T. Karg | Reviewed WBS 1.3 risks; no changes |
17 | 27-Jun-19 | T. DeYoung | Clarified wording of TECH2 to reflect baseline geometry. No other changes. |
18 | 28-Jun-19 | D. Williams | Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes |
19 | 3-Jul-19 | T. Hutchings | Reviewed 1.2 risks, no changes |
20 | 3-Jul-19 | M. DuVernois | Reviewed. No changes. |
21 | 4-Jul-19 | E.Blaufuss | Reviewed. No changed needed now. Tech risk18 no longer applicable. |
22 | 8-Jul-19 | M. Zernick | Tech18 Risk is retired. The IDF is no longer being used by the Icecube Upgrade Project. |
23 | 24-Sep-19 | M. Zernick | Reviewed Risk ORG4. No changes. |
24 | 25-Sep-19 | T. Hutchings | Reviewed 1.2 risks. No changes |
25 | 27-Sep-19 | T. Karg | Reviewed 1.3 risks. Extended ORG5 "Optical moduled by air" into PY5 since the last modules will ship one year later if there is no traverse |
26 | 30-Sep-19 | D. WIlliams | Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes |
27 | 30-Sep-19 | E. Blaufuss | Reviewed 1.6 risks, noted retirement of Tech18 per CR#2, dropping IDF from plan. |
28 | 30-Sep-19 | M. Zernick | Added "Last Modified Date" to TECH18 Risk. |
29 | 2-Oct-19 | F. Feyzi | Added revised annual estimates based on PY2 detail planning and PY1 actuals |
30 | 9-Oct-19 | M. Zernick/TH | Added TECH32 and TECH33. (CO2Fire Suppression)/Removed Contingency for retired risks: EXT1, ORG7, and PMI1 |
31 | 20-Dec-19 | M. DuVernois | Added TECH34. (PMT w/base production for mDOM before full testing of base) |
32 | 21-Dec-19 | E.Blaufuss | Reviewed 1.6 risks, no changes. |
33 | 23-Dec-19 | M. Zernick | Added Contingency $ to TECH34. |
34 | 26-Dec-19 | T. Hutchings | Reviewed 1.2 risks. No changes |
35 | 30-Dec-19 | T. Karg | Reviewed 1.3 risks, no changes |
36 | 30-Dec-19 | T. DeYoung | TECH31 probablity very low based on Hexatronic sample. Cost exposure should be recalculated |
37 | 30-Dec-19 | D. Williams | Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes |
38 | 2-Jan-20 | M. Zernick | Revised TECH 31: recalulated resultant risk exposure/ Contingency for PY18-19 per TY's changes. |
39 | 6-Jan-20 | M. Zernick | Revised TECH31: Changed anticipated risk retirement dates from PY1 (18-19) to PY2 (19-20) |
40 | 13-Mar-20 | TB/MAZ | Added TECH35 to cover frozen drill hose. Clarified distinction between ORG4 and ORG6 regarding injury on the ice. |
41 | 22-Apr-20 | MAZ | Added COVID-19 Risks: TECH36, TECH37, ORG8, and ORG9. Modified Risk ORG3 to accommodate additional risk incurred by COVID-19 |
42 | 18-Jun-20 | T. Karg | Reviewed 1.3 risks, no changes |
43 | 18-Jun-20 | T. DeYoung | Reviewed 1.4 risks, no changes |
44 | 18-Jun-20 | E. Blaufuss | Reviewed 1.6 risks, no changes. |
45 | 23-Jun-20 | D. Williams | Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes. |
46 | 25-Sep-20 | I. McEwen | Updated owner - ORG6, EXT10, TECH19, TECH23, TECH20, ORG1, ORG2, TECH36, EXT1, TECH22, TECH25, TECH26, TECH27, TECH24, TECH5, TECH21, TECH28, TECH29, TECH1, TECH30, TECH32, TECH33, & TECH35 to Implementation Manager |
47 | 26-Sep-20 | I. McEwen | Adjusted Org 6 language to include both serious accidents and incidents (added) during on-ice activites, not just drilling activities. |
48 | 27-Sep-20 | I. McEwen | Updated EXT1 Risk language. |
49 | 14-Jan-21 | M. DuVernois | Typo fixes, formating changes, no content changes. |
50 | 5-Feb-21 | FF/MAZ | Finalized rebaselined risks. |
51 | 28-Jan-21 | M. Zernick | Shift all all retired risks to "Low Priority Risk" Status. Only the Re-Baselined Risks remain a priority. |
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52 | 24-Feb-21 | MAZ, IMc, MR | Added 4+4 Risks tab. Added risks. |
53 | 24-Feb-21 | M. Zernick | Removed EXT15 from Rebaselined RR (Current) |
54 | 16-Mar-21 | M. Zernick | PMO Risk Review |
55 | 7-May-21 | M. Zernick | New risk identified for Supplemental Funding. PMO Review |
56 | 19-Jan-22 | I. McEwen | Adjusted field season references from dates to field season (FS1,FS2, & FS3) lines 4-10 |
57 | 25-Jan-22 | D. Tosi | Added risks to 1.2.9 and 1.2.10 (to be completed) |
58 | 27-Jan-22 | T. Karg | Retired OPP1, TECH34, Ext2, Ext3. Added new risks in WBS 1.3 |
59 | 27-Jan-22 | D. Tosi | Added Dust Logger Procurement risk to 1.5 (needs to be completed) |
60 | 27-Jan-22 | T. DeYoung | Added risks to 1.4 |
61 | 1-Feb-22 | T. DeYoung | Removed risks Tech3 (Cable mechanical) and Tech7 (cable timing) as these are now captured in FMEA |
62 | 21-Feb-22 | T. Benson |
Updated TECH36 Named and updated TECH39 Named and updated TECH40 (combined two separate testBed-related controls risks into one, re-rated) Added TECH41,42,44,45 Updated ratings for ORG6,10,11 Updated TECH23, ORG2, TECH32, TECH22, TECH25, TECH27, TECH20 TECH24 - renamed and updated description |
63 | 2-Mar-22 | T. Benson | Updated all 1.2 drill risks with exposure values, added Contributed Driller risk |
64 | 3-Mar-22 | M. Zernick | Updated Major Risk Flags to coincide with RIG requirements. |
65 | 8-Mar-22 | M. DuVernois | Combined TECH7 & 9. Modified project killer (extra year) risks with mitigations to keep them within the single drill season at best; though could exceed. Added opportunity of contributed drillers. Fixed some cost scorings to match the dollar figures of exposure. |
66 | 8-Apr-22 | M. Zernick | Corrected ORG1 risk calculation formulas. Added lines where none were. |
67 | 9-Apr-22 | V. O'Dell | Corrected post-mitigation risk scores |
A | B | C | D | E |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Risk Probabilities Table | Limits for Calculation | ||
2 | Probability of Occurrence Descriptor | Numerical Ranges | Low | High |
3 | Very Low | < 5% | 1% | 5% |
4 | Low | 5% - 25% | 5% | 25% |
5 | Moderate | 25% - 50% | 25% | 50% |
6 | High | 50% - 75% | 50% | 75% |
7 | Very High | > 75% | 75% | 95% |
A | B | C | D | E | F | |
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1 | Impacts | |||||
2 | Project Objective | Very Low | Low | Moderate | High | Very High |
3 | Cost | Less than $10k | $10k - $50k | $50k - $250k | $250k - $1M | > $1M |
4 | Time | Less than 1 week | Month | 3 months | 6 months | Greater than 6 months |
5 | Scope | Scope decreases barely noticeable | Minor areas of scope affected | Major areas of scope affected | Scope reduction unacceptable to sponsor | Project item is effectively useless |
6 | Quality / Performance | Quality / performance degradation barely noticeable | Only very demanding applications are affected | Quality / performance reduction requires sponsor approval | Quality / performance degradation unacceptable to sponsor | Project item is effectively useless |
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A | B | C | D | E | F | |
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1 | Probability and Impact Matrix for Risk Scoring | |||||
2 | Probability | Impact | ||||
3 | Very Low | Low | Moderate | High | Very High | |
4 | Very High | Moderate | Moderate | High | High | High |
5 | High | Low | Moderate | High | High | High |
6 | Moderate | Low | Moderate | Moderate | High | High |
7 | Low | Low | Low | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate |
8 | Very Low | Low | Low | Low | Low | Moderate |
A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Technical (TECH) | Risk Title | Organizational (ORG) | Risk Title | External (EXT) | Risk Title | Project Management (PM) | Risk Title | Retired Risks (RET) | Risk Title | |||
2 | TECH1 | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 1 | ORG1 | Optical modules by air | EXT1 | Fuel Delays | PM1 | Inflation | RET1 | IDF late design | |||
3 | TECH2 | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 2 | ORG2 | M&O Injury | EXT2 | DNF Failure | PM2 | Resignation | RET2 | DAQ software interface delays Risks: 3, 10 | |||
4 | TECH3 | Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 3 | ORG3 | RETIRED: Contributed Drillers | EXT3 | Traverse Delays | RET3 | CPT milestone delays | |||||
5 | TECH4 | Loss of Drill Expertise (overlap PM2) | ORG4 | FS3 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident | EXT4 | Shipping Delays | RET4 | Production calibration database | |||||
6 | TECH5 | Novel String Installation - Equip | ORG5 | FS2 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident | EXT5 | ASC Support | RET5 | DOMcal equivalent | |||||
7 | TECH6 | Unable to dispose of Condensate | ORG6 | FS1 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident | EXT6 | Logistics Delays | RET6 | Bad glass | |||||
8 | TECH7 | Major Equipment Failure | ORG7 | Driller recruitment | EXT7 | Logistics and Cargo | RET7 | Microturbines | |||||
9 | TECH8 | Control System Problem | ORG8 | Combined into TECH7 | EXT8 | Drill obstructions | RET8 | CO2 Discharge | |||||
10 | TECH9 | Combined into TECH7 | ORG9 | DOM power limit | EXT9 | mDOM Electronics Supply Chain | RET9 | Season delay Risks: 4,5, 6, 8, 9 | |||||
11 | TECH10 | MHP Failures | EXT10 | mDOM Support Structure Supply Chain | RET10 | In-kind tracking issues | |||||||
12 | TECH11 | Tower failure | EXT11 | Sensor Long-Term Storage | RET11 | DNF Failure | |||||||
13 | TECH12 | Drill Head Problems | EXT12 | Special Device Cancellation | RET12 | Shipping Delays | |||||||
14 | TECH13 | Main Reel Failure | EXT13 | FieldHub delay | RET13 | PM job | |||||||
15 | TECH14 | Damaged Drill Hose | EXT14 | White Rabbit supplier | RET14 | Better PMTs at Lower Cost | |||||||
16 | TECH15 | Damaged Drill Cable | EXT15 | Cable delay | RET15 | Hamamatsu production | |||||||
17 | TECH16 | Frozen Drill Hose | EXT16 | MMB delay | RET16 | Quake PMTs | |||||||
18 | TECH17 | Motor Drives | EXT17 | Dust Logger Winch Procurement | RET17 | ICL power | |||||||
19 | TECH18 | HPP Failure | RET18 | Only 5 Strings | |||||||||
20 | TECH19 | RWP Failure | RET19 | mDOM PMT | |||||||||
21 | TECH20 | IFD Failure | RET20 | Crew deployment Risk 2 | |||||||||
22 | TECH21 | Old EHWD Failure | RET21 | Major fire, combined TECH7 & 9 | |||||||||
23 | TECH22 | Generator Problems | RET22 | Contributed drillers | |||||||||
24 | TECH23 | Sensor Handling - Sled | RET23 | Hose stuck | |||||||||
25 | TECH24 | Sensor Handling - Tent | |||||||||||
26 | TECH25 | ESD - Handle + Deploy | |||||||||||
27 | TECH26 | Partial Undeployment of String | |||||||||||
28 | TECH27 | String Partial Loss | |||||||||||
29 | TECH28 | String Total Loss | |||||||||||
30 | TECH29 | Dust Logger Winch | |||||||||||
31 | TECH30 | TU-20 Failure | |||||||||||
32 | TECH31 | OM FDR | |||||||||||
33 | TECH32 | mDOM Bubbles | |||||||||||
34 | TECH33 | mDOM Production Yield | |||||||||||
35 | TECH34 | D-Egg FAT Yield | |||||||||||
36 | TECH35 | PDOM PV leak | |||||||||||
37 | TECH36 | xDOM Electronics ESD Damage | |||||||||||
38 | TECH37 | Main cable design iteration | |||||||||||
39 | TECH38 | Strength member needed | |||||||||||
40 | TECH39 | Deployment procedures | |||||||||||
41 | TECH40 | Alternate cable | |||||||||||
42 | TECH41 | Cable too large | |||||||||||
43 | TECH42 | Cable too heavy | |||||||||||
44 | TECH43 | BCA design iteration | |||||||||||
45 | TECH44 | SCA delay | |||||||||||
46 | TECH45 | Comms bandwidth | |||||||||||
47 | TECH46 | YaleGrip size | |||||||||||
48 | TECH47 | DAQ software interface delays | |||||||||||
49 | TECH48 | DAQ trigger too high | |||||||||||
50 | TECH49 | mDOM noise rates overwhelm MCU |
51 | TECH50 | MCU SW Config ID failure | |||||||||||||
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52 | TECH51 | FieldHub software unable to keep up | |||||||||||||
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