1. Risk Register
  2. Change Log
  3. Probabilities
  4. Impacts
  5. Scoring
  6. Risk Categories

  A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN AO AP AQ AR AS AT AU
1 Risk Identification and Tracking Pre-Mitigated Risk Evaluation Current Risk Response Major Risk Flag Post-Mitigated Risk Evaluation Comments / Notes Risk Cost Exposure Risk Schedule Exposure Risk Retirement Timeframe Remaining Contingency Remaining Contingency
2 Revision History Probability and Impacts Initial Risk Exposure   Probability and Impacts Resulting Risk Exposure   NSF $ Unit of weeks    
3 Risk ID Associated WBS Risk Description Risk Title Risk Origin Date Last modified Date Risk Retirement Date Risk Probability Impact on schedule Impact on cost Impact on technical performance Schedule Risk Score Cost Risk Score Technical Performance Risk Score Risk Owner Risk Occurrence Timeframe Risk Handling Approach / Response Risk Trigger Risk Mitigation Plan and Actions Risk Probability Impact on schedule Impact on cost Impact on technical performance Schedule Risk Score Cost Risk Score Technical Performance Risk Score Basis for the risk and schedule exposure Risk Cost Exposure Low Estimate Average Estimate High Estimate Risk Schedule Exposure Low Estimate High Estimate Expected Actual PY1-18/19 PY2-19/20 PY3-20/21 PY4-21/22 PY5-22/23 PY6-23/24 PY6-23/24 PY6-23/24    
4 1.1 Project Office          
5 EXT1 1.1.4 Fuel Delivery Delayed - Less fuel on hand than needed, so must save some in the drilling - no or less de-gassing of holes. Fuel Delays 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Very low Very High Low Low Moderate Low Low PM Feyzi FS2 & FS3 Mitigate ASC communication in 2022 Communicate the fuel requirements to ASC and NSF as early as possible and monitor. Fuel requirements will be in the SIP and are confirmed by the RSP. Could also mitigate with some scope reduction, eliminate de-gassing, shorter drill holes. Very Low Very low Very Low Moderate Low Low Low Need for additional calibration efforts for the bubble column (if de-gassing not done). Scope decrease in deep ice measurements. $200,000 $100,000 $250,000 $400,000 4 0 8 FS3 $36,000 $36,000 $36,000 $36,000 $36,000    
6 EXT2 1.1.4 Winter Storage DNF Failure - McMurdo or South Pole winter storage heat failure damages equipment/sensors DNF Failure 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Very low High High Very low Low Low Low McEwen 22/23 or 23/24 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Work with ASC to develop back-up plan in the event of long-term power failure. If there is a major power failure at Pole during the winter, the Winterover staff will make corrections ASAP. Will require monitoring of the temperatures. Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Low Mitigation could be just in time delivery of DNF items. Storing fewer items. Cost is estimate of posssible repair efforts. Estimate at 25% of a field season worth of effort for repair. $500,000 $100,000 $1,000,000 12 0 52    
7 ORG1 1.1.4 If schedule delays lead to less than full complement of optical modules for delivery, then air shipment is required Optical modules by air 8/2/2018 Moderate Very low Low Very low Low Moderate Low OM lead Karg Shipping deadlines Mitigate Schedule slip Plan for some air shipments which could cover last modules, keep on top of deliveries Low Very low Low Very Low Low Low Low Shipping estimate - difference truck PTH vs COMAIR to CHC $12,000 $5,000 $25,000 0 0 2    
8 EXT3 1.1.4 Traverse Delays - Weather or equipment problems precludes a traverse moving IceCube equipment to NPX. Traverse Delays 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Low Moderate Low Very low Moderate Low Low McEwen 22/23 or 23/24 Mitigate Communication from Traverse Leader that delivery to NPX is delayed. Detailed planning meetings with ASC. Track traverse metrics on meeting delivery to NPX commitments. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Risk Cost is related to additonal labor needed to recover from late delivery. $25,000 $5,000 $40,000 4 2 8    
9 EXT4 1.1.4 Domestic/International Shipping Delays - Equipment being shipped to PTH, or via vessel are delayed en route. Shipping Delays 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Low Moderate Moderate Very low Moderate Moderate Low McEwen 22/23 or 23/24 Mitigate Poor performance during the Production phase for Upgrade instrumentation. Schedule CONUS shipments of most critical items with additional time. Plan vessel/traverse shipments with a backup LC130 fly-in plan. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Add cost for shipping via air to CHC. $12,000 $5,000 $25,000 2 0 4    
10 EXT5 1.1.4 ASC Support Impacts - Equipment and labor support is reassigned to other projects, or unavailable. ASC Support 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low PM/Feyzi 22/23 or 23/24 Mitigate Communication from ASC Science Support staff that Upgrade project will not get agreed upon support. Detailed planning meetings with ASC. Review submitted SIP each year. Confirm support in RSP matches needs identified in the SIP. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low If ASC support is not available, will have to make a plan for the project to execute needed work. $17,500 $5,000 $35,000 4 1 6    
11 ORG2 1.1.3 Major injury occurs during drill season, but not associated with drilling. Work stoppage occurs until review is performed and "safe to proceed" determined. M&O Injury 8/2/2018 2/28/2022 Moderate Low Moderate Very low Moderate Moderate Low Safety Mgr Zernick Field season 3 Mitigate Injury Extensive safety program training before and on the ice, procedure for handling injury root case analysis, procedure for reauthorizing work. Design engineered safety controls throughout to assist mitigation. Very Low Moderate Moderate Very low Low Low Low Cost of 2 week work stoppage at Pole. $70,000 $45,000 $145,000 2 2 2 25/26    
12 EXT6 1.1.4 Weather/flight delays of equipment or personnel to South Pole delays drilling greater than 2 weeks. Logistics Delays 8/15/2018 Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low PM Field season 3 Watch Weather/Aircraft Monitor logistics and maintain communications throughout the logistics chain for potential technical impacts Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low Minor cost impact $20,000 $10,000 $40,000 2 2 2    
13 PM1 1.1 Inflation is high at the moment, in fact in many areas the one year inflation rate is 20% or higher. Inflation 3/3/2022 High Low Moderate Low Moderate High Moderate PD 2022 Watch Cost inflation Monitor new quotations. Most purchases of CapEx are complete already. This might be larger effect in salaries and indirect, see PM2 risk. High Low Moderate Very Low Moderate High Low 10% of PY5-8 costs not including labor, not compounded $160,000 $80,000 $240,000 2 0 8    
14 PM2 1.1 The great resignation can affect the project team, and could result in departures of personnel in critical roles. Resignation 3/3/2022 High Moderate Moderate Low High High Moderate PD 2022 Mitigate Morale and/or job market Explicit efforts at improving morale, salary increases, increased workplace flexibility. High Moderate Moderate Very Low High High Low 20% increase on 10% of key roles for PY5-8 labor rates, difficulties in finding new personnel $240,000 $200,000 $400,000 12 4 26    
15                                                                                              
16 1.2 Northern Risks      
17 TECH1 1.2.4 Unable to complete controls system work on-schedule due to cargo front-loading and/or staffing limitations. Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 1 4/2/2020 3/2/2022 Low Moderate High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Projected missed ship date April 2022 status review of the drill control systems, supplement staff Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Bring in extra 1FTE x 6mo to catch up $103,500 $60,000 $150,000 4 2 6    
18 TECH2 1.2.4 Unable to make critical controls hardware procurements (motor drives, DGH's servers, sensors, etc) on-schedule due to vendor shortages and transportation delays. Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 2 4/2/2020 3/2/2022 Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Projected missed ship date Comsur shipments, supplement staff Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Bring in extra 1FTE x 6mo to catch up $103,500 $60,000 $150,000 8 4 12    
19 TECH3 1.2.4 Delay in development of user interfaces, control algorithms, and hands-on integration and test activities due to Test Bed limitations. Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 3 4/2/2020 3/2/2022 Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Control software not on track for proper maturity by the field season it is needed Additional outfitting of testBed equipment, additional effort in project out-years Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate $50k equipment investment in TestBed + (0.5FTE x 6mo) to support the investment $101,750 $60,000 $150,000 8 4 12    
20 TECH4 1.2 Loss of key drilling expertise/personnel Loss of Drill Expertise 2/21/2022 3/2/2022 Moderate Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Loss of key personnel Keep key staff engaged Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Project delays may result in key personnel leaving before new staff have been able to acquire skillset. 0.25FTE x 6mo recruit and train per new employee, assume 4 new employees $103,500 $60,000 $150,000 12 10 20    
21 TECH5 1.2 Novel string installation - Final down-hole cable design requires the development of new equipment and processes for installation (i.e. New rope reel with coordinated load sharing) Novel String Installation - Equip 2/21/2022 3/2/2022 Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Moderate Implementation Mgr Field season 3 Mitigate Final determination of down hole installation cable Change request to support new scope Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Define requirements, design, procure, fab/assem/integrate, testing $80,000 $60,000 $120,000 8 6 12    
22 TECH6 1.2 Unable to dispose of condensate into onsite SES condensate bulb Unable to dispose of Condensate 2/21/2022 3/2/2022 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Implementation Mgr FS1 Mitigate Results of ASC environmental decision Request additional equipment/ops/resources to transport condensate to outfall and dispose there, or to ship off-site Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Sled and barrell system (5k) + extra handling time adds 1/2 week of full drill team (35k). Additional ASC handling support not captured here. $49,200 $15,000 $75,000 1 0 2    
23 1.2 Field Season Risks      
24 ORG4 1.2 Serious FS3 injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities until full accident investigation Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS3 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Moderate Very High Very High Moderate High High Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Any number of reasons Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. Make full plan with the contractor for an accident investigation process ahead of time. Very Low Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Low Worst case:drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr
(3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season
28*88*525 = 1.3M
training = 193k
PQ/travel = 244k
Another drill season = 1.74M
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k
Total = 2M maximum; shorter delays down to 2 weeks could be pictured for a quick moving accident investigation
$500,000 $200,000 $1,100,000 $2,000,000 6 2 52 FS3 end $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450    
25 ORG5 1.2 Serious FS2 season injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities until full accident investigation is completed Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS2 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Moderate Very High Very High Low High High Moderate Implementation Mgr FS2 Mitigate Any number of reasons Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. Very Low Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Low Would try to resolve accident investigation quickly, but worst case delays seasonal work
Scale FS2/FS3 = (16/28 drillers)*1.74M = 1M
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k
Total = 1.3M
$500,000 $200,000 $850,000 $1,500,000 6 2 52 FS2 end $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450    
26 ORG6 1.2 1.2Serious FS1 season injury or incident occurance halts on-ice activities Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident FS1 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Moderate Low Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS1 Mitigate Any number of reasons Thorough safety training as well as systems and individual hazards analysis performed throughout the EHWD. All those deploying to Pole will receive SafeStart Training. Other mitigations are outlined in the IceCube Upgrade Safety Plan. Further, IceCube Upgrade Management plans to hire experienced persons to deploy to Pole. Very Low Low High Low Low Low Low Would try to resolve accident investigation quickly, but worst case delays seasonal work
Scale FS1/FS3 = (11/28 drillers)*1.74M = 680k
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k
Total = 980k
$500,000 $200,000 $650,000 $1,100,000 6 2 52 FS1 end $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450 $147,450    
27 TECH7 1.2 Major Drill Season Equipment Failure such as main hose reel failure, or a stuck drill head losing the cable and hose, or a fire damages the main heating plant, results in season stoppage and additional drilling season. Major Equipment Failure or Fire 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Diligent Hazards Analysis, risk mitigation planning, and training. Procedures, experienced crew. Spares. Firefighting training. Emergency procedures. Very Low Moderate Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Some scenarios might be recoverable, but many would require an additional (unavailable) drill season, worst case calculation here: drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr
(3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season
28*88*525 = 1.3M
training = 193k
PQ/travel = 244k
Another drill season = 1.74M
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k; Heating plant $800k
Total = 2.8M max, possible range very wide
$1,000,000 $300,000 $1,550,000 $2,800,000 52 4 104 FS3 end $368,625 $368,625 $368,625 $368,625 $368,625      
28 ORG7 1.2.8 Driller Talent Aquisition and Retention - EHWD drill operation in Antarctica is unique and specific skill-set. Recruiting experienced drillers key for project success Drillers recruitment 8/15/2018 3/2/2022 High High High Low High High Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Recruitment struggles Intiate staffing planning and recruitment early. Network with and engage experienced drillers in the search. Develop training plans. Engage collaboration early on for contributed drillers. Allow for flexibility with deployments. Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Increased salary costs to recruit/entice experience.  16 direct-hires increased salaries (average) across 2 seasons
TECH rate -> ENGR rate, delta $38/hr, 525 hr/season
16*2*38*525 = 640k
$640,000 $300,000 $550,000 $800,000 12 8 16 FS2-FS3 end $54,000 $54,000 $54,000 $54,000 $54,000 $ - 0 $ - 0
29 TECH8 1.2.4 Insufficient IV&T of Control System results in control failure during drilling delaying drill operations Control System Problem 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Robust testing in CONUS of sub-assemblies. Complete install in FS2 with full testing. Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 0 2 FS3 end $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $10,500    
30                                                                                            
31 EXT7 1.2.3 Logistics delays in FS1 & FS2 could lead to the need for additional labor in FS2 and FS3 to be ready for drilling in FS3 Logistics and Cargo 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate PM Feyzi FS3 Mitigate ASC communication in 2022 Communicate cargo requirements to ASC and NSF as early as possible and monitor. Cargo requirements will be in the SIP and are confirmed by the RSP. Very Low Low High Low Low Low Low 30% loss of field season assumed. Cost includes labor and travel $448,000 $350,000 $475,000 $600,000 8 6 10 FS1 & FS2 end $22,400 $22,400 $22,400 $22,400 $0    
32 TECH10 1.2.2 Main Heater Failures - Heater failures during drilling operations force drill speed to be decreased, or descope of cold reaming or dust logging MHP Failures 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Pressure testing in FS1. Full system testing in FS2. React with repairs/replacements, and/or supplement with WISSARD HPUs. Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Extensive failures would potentially add more than 1 week during drill season. Testing in FS1 and FS2 mitigates this. $98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 1 2 FS3 end    
33 TECH11 1.2.3 Tower - Fatigue, overload, or unforeseen circustances results in failure of crescent, sheaves, hoist, or structural components Tower failure 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Perform detailed structural inspection and maintenance in FS1. Load testing performed during load cell calibration in FS2. Crescent emergency repair kit. Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 0 2 FS3 end    
34 TECH12 1.2.3 Drill Head Communication Failure - Communication from drillhead during drilling operations ceases Drill Head Problems 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Thorough system testing in CONUS. 1x spare drillhead on-site (3 total). Develop Guidelines for "Drilling Blind." Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 0 2 FS3 end    
35 TECH13 1.2.3 Hose/Cable Reel Failure - One or both reels develop major motor, level-wind, or technical problem and deemed non-functional. On-site repair required. Main Reel Failure 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 low High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error MDCR rebuild and comprehensive testing in CONUS. DSHR operational tests in FS1 and FS2. Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 1 2 FS3 end    
36 TECH14 1.2 Cut/Damaged Drill Hose - Equipment or unknowns damage the main drill hose. Damaged Drill Hose 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Proper visible flagging and markings installed. There will be 5 spare sections of hose on site in FS3. A procedure for replacing a section of the hose will be reviewed. Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 0 2 FS3 end    
37                                                                                            
38 TECH15 1.2 Cut/Damaged Drill Cable - Equipment or unknowns end up damaging the main drill cable. Damaged Drill Cable 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Proper visible flagging and markings installed. Two brand-new cables will be supplied to the Pole for use in FS2 Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 1 2 FS3 end    
39 EXT8 1.2 Drilling into obstructions/cables - The tight array is planned in an area with possible "old station" debris Drill obstructions 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Moderate Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Unknown GPR scans completed during '19-20 season were inconclusive. Request has been made for a new GPR scan. Firn Holes will be drilled one-year in advance to accommodate potential relocation of holes due to debris. Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low 1-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 40hr
$98,400 $65,000 $150,000 1 1 2 FS3 end $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $10,500 $0    
40 TECH16 1.2.6 Drill Hose gets exposed to deep freeze conditions. < -53 C, increased rate of hose failure during drill season. Frozen Drill Hose 3/10/2020 3/2/2022 High Low Moderate High Moderate High High Implementation Mgr Winter in between FS2 & FS3 Mitigate Environmental Implement hose heating system to heat hose on reel over winter. This was done successfully on Gen1. Keep hose temperature above brittle transition point of -53C. Monitoring will be in place. Low Low Moderate High Low Moderate Moderate Hose failure mode: Blister formation on outside layer, not catastophic. Drillers trained to identify symptoms and replace immediately. Individual hose sections can be replaced, spare hose sections were ordered. If too many hoses fail, cannot drill to full depth.
2-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 80hr
$196,800 $100,000 $250,000 2 1 3 FS3 end    
41 TECH17 1.2.5 Motor Drive Problems - New motor drives have unforeseen problems Motor Drives 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS2 & FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Installation, programing, training, and testing of all motor drives while in CONUS. Installation and testing at NPX season prior to drilling. Train multiple drillers/ Engineers on how to maintain/troubleshoot the Allen Bradley Motor Drives. Very Low Very low Moderate Very low Low Low Low 2-week delay for full drill team - additional labor costs
8engr + 20tech x 80hr
$196,800 $100,000 $250,000 2 1 4 FS2    
42 TECH18 1.2.6 High Pressure Pump Failure - Pump or pump motor fails prior to or during drilling operations HPP Failure 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Very low Low Low Low Low Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Procure additional spare pumps and motors. Provide driller training for field replacement during prior off-ice season. Low Very low Low Low Low Low Low 1/2 week delay $49,200 $20,000 $80,000 1 0 2 FS2 & FS3 end    
43 TECH19 1.2.6 Return Water Pump Failure - The RWP fails during drilling operations. RWP Failure 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Procure spare, develop replacement procedure, train drillers Low Very low Low Low Low Low Low 1 day delay $20,000 $10,000 $30,000 1 0 1 FS2 & FS3 end    
44 TECH20 1.2.7 Independent Firn Drill Failure - Serious problems result in the inoperability of the IFD during FS2 IFD Failure 12/13/2018 3/2/2022 Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Implementation Mgr FS2 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Locate and update original plans and equipment (carrot with leaker-circuit) to firn drill using hot water. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 1-week delay - longer season (short crew) $14,057 $0 $25,000 1 0 1 FS2    
45 TECH21 1.2.8 A majority of the EHWD equipment has been stored/cold-soaked for 6+ years at the South Pole. Risk of old EHWD equipment failure. Old EHWD Failure 8/15/2018 3/2/2022 Low High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS2 & FS3 Mitigate Failure upon followup inspections and testing during FS1. Thorough and robust testing performed in seasons prior to deep drilling. Identify most-at-risk equipment and procure additional spare parts or refurbish and repair equipment Low Low High Low Low Moderate Moderate Offseason equipment budget to address (80k)
Additional on-ice work in FS2 ~ 2 week delay
$276,800 $150,000 $300,000 2 2 6 FS3 end    
46 TECH22 1.2.5 Generators: Cargo delays or insufficient support prevent thorough IV&T prior to use, resulting in failures during use and delays during system testing in FS2 and/or drilling in FS3 Generator Problems 2/21/2022 3/2/2022 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr FS2 & FS3 Mitigate Losistics delays, support concerns External contractor support. Communication with ASC about timing with specialalized contractor support Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low ICU bringing in specialized contractor support to finish repair on Gen2 and support with final IV&T. All equipment needs to be on-site at same time. Possibly send Gen2 to NZ.
Capture as 2 week delay during drilling season
$196,800 $100,000 $250,000 2 1 4    
47 TECH23 1.2.9 Sleds formerly from the 88 South Traverse project cannot be used Sensor Handling - Sled 1/15/2021 2/8/2022 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Installation Mgr prior to FS2 Mitigate Support Collaborate with ASC to find no cost or low cost solutions using on-ice materials if the 88 sleds not available. Request ASC a definite answer by end of 2022 at latest so alternative (including procurement and shipping) can be finalized in advance of FS2. Transport by Comsur & C-17 will be required to deliver materials by early FS2.   Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Estimates from quotes and off shelf components, estimated on 2 sleds each with 5 AIPs and straps to connect AIPs to sleds and sensor pallets to AIPs. Heel, Toe and labor cost included in estimate. Additional time on ice to set the sleds up. $35,000 $32,000 $40,000 3 2 4 prior to FS2    
48 TECH24 1.2.9 Solar Garage cannot be used as testing tent Sensor Handling - Tent 1/15/2021 2/8/2022 Moderate Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Installation Mgr prior to FS2 Mitigate Support Collaborate with ASC to find no cost or low cost solutions using tents available on ice. Request ASC a definite answer by end of 2022 at latest so alternative (including procurement and shipping) can be finalized in advance of FS2. Transport by Comsur & C-17 will be required to deliver materials by early FS2. Low Low Low Low Low Moderate Low Quote for a similar tent from BigTop. Shipping not included. Additional time on ice to set the tent up in Antarctica. Crew of 5, 4-5 days for a RAC tent, up to 2 weeks, with some crane support. $50,000 $45,000 $55,000 3 1 5 prior to FS2    
49 TECH25 1.2.10 Protect xDOM from ESD during staging and during installation. This includes sled transport, the DOM handling facility, and ESD protection while connecting the BCA to the PCA and BCA to Main Cable Assembly. ESD - Handle + Deploy 1/15/2021 1/24/2022 Moderate Very low Low Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Environmental ESD plan for installation. Bond Tower to GND. Charge bleeder connected to main cable in the spool. Re-examine failure in Gen1. Strict attention to ESD discipline and ESD training. ensure ESD charge neutralization to any cables prior to connecting or disconnecting xDevices Low Very low Low Low Low Low Low Single DOM loss would not result in schedule shift or replacement cost. If major systematic problem occurred one week to revisit and fix issues. $0 1 0 1 FS3 end $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000    
50 TECH26 1.2.10 Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in undeploying partially the string and swapping instrumentation/BCAs. Partial Undeployment of String 1/15/2021 1/25/2022 Low Very Low High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips). Undeployment procedure. Low Very low High Low Low Moderate Low Hole may need to be re-drilled if undeployment took long enough for the hole to be significantly closed. Used 53585/7 = 7655 gallons of fuel and 864 for base (2 days)= 8519 gallons, 25.45$/gallons (2019 price) = $216808. That's low estimate, no labor added assuming time needed can be absorbed in season. High estimate on fuel of 10000 gallons and assume one week extra labor for drillers full team. This includes that repositioning of hose and reels may take longer as operations need go be going backwards compared to drill sequence. ($70,214). Average for Risk Cost Exposure. $270,761 $216,808 $382,900 1 0.5 1.5 FS3 end    
51 TECH27 1.2.10 Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in partial loss of string, unknown during deployment String Partial Loss 1/15/2021 1/25/2022 Low Very Low Very Low High Low Low Moderate Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips) Low Very low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate No cost or schedule slip as this risk assumes installation team does not know this. Loss of performance only. $0 0 FS3 end    
52 TECH28 1.2.10 Failure of a harness or rigging element that would result in total loss of string (string is stuck during drop, or deployment cannot continue and undeployment cannot happen, instrumentation is abandoned) String Total Loss 1/15/2021 1/25/2022 Low High Very High Very High Moderate Moderate Moderate Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Operator Error/Equipment Failure/Hardware Failure Set robust mechanical requirements (design and proof test) for each element (harness, pressure vessels, rigging pieces, yale grips). Contingency time accounted for each installation step in hole lifetime calculation and prescribed drill charts. Low Very low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Mitigation greatly reduces probability. String could not be replaced so no cost or schedule risk, only loss of performance. $0 0 FS3 end    
53 TECH29 1.2.10 Dust Logger winch failure Dust Logger Winch 12/13/2018 1/25/2022 Low Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Test Winch and Dust Logger Comms as soon as they are delivered to Pole, and at tower once electrical connections are established. If maulfunction happens prior to Dust Logger run start: establish Abort Time Prior to Start, postpone Dust Logger Run to next (last hole). Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Last hole will need to be made larger to accomodate dust logger run. low estimate of 110 gal (difference between a deep cold ream hole and a hot + log hole) => 110*25.45= $2800. High estimate 10% fuel (800 gal) to account for possible re-ordering of holes. $2,800 $2,800 $20,360 1 0 1 FS3 end    
54 TECH30 1.2.10 String Installation Winch Failure - The TU20 winch fails during installation operations. TU-20 needs to be swapped out TU-20 Failure 12/13/2018 1/25/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Installation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Inspect and repair both TU-20's to full operation. Create Deployment Cable Swap-Out Procedure. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 1-day delay - longer season (short crew) $ - 0 1 0 1 FS3 end    
55 1.3 Deep Ice Sensor Modules      
56                                                                                            
57 TECH31 1.3 If one of the planned sensor types does not pass FDR as scheduled the project schedule could be severely disrupted OM FDR 8/13/2018 Low High Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low OM Lead Until FDR, April 2022 Mitigate FDR fails Design and plan the production capacity of all production facilities with sufficient flexibility to be able to fall back to a different OM type Low Low Low Very Low Low Low Low Off NSF budget $ - 0 $0 26 8 52    
58 TECH32 1.3.1 If bubbles remain in the mDOM Optical Gel, the optical sensitivity of the mDOM might worse than expected mDOM Bubbles 1/27/2022 Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate mDOM Lead Until FDR, April 2022 Mitigate Design does not meet requirements Optimize surface of support structure (use MJF, chemically smoothing, remove sharp edges)
Implement bubbles in simulations and investigate impact on physics
Gel-pad mDOM: Will delay the start of series production by several months
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Off NSF budget $ - 0 $0 4 0 8    
59 EXT9 1.3.1 If electronics parts for the mDOM Mainboard cannot be procured in time, the mDOM production and testing will be delayed mDOM Electronics Supply Chain 1/27/2022 High Moderate Low Low High Moderate Moderate OM Lead Until procurement Mitigate External Continuously monitor market throughout collaboration and centrally collect information of availability of critical components
Place orders / publish calls for tender as early as possible
Develop plans for series integration of half-mDOMs, add in mainboards as late as possible
High Moderate Low Low High Moderate Moderate Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. $ - 0 $0 4 0 52    
60 EXT10 1.3.1 If suppliers don't have sufficient capacity to 3D-print mDOM PMT Support Structures, the mDOM production and testing will be delayed mDOM Support Structure Supply Chain 1/27/2022 Moderate Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate OM Lead Until procurement Mitigate External Foresee production of PMT Support Structures in several batches that can be tendered to different manfufacturers Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. $ - 0 $0 4 0 26    
61 TECH33 1.3.1 If mDOM series production does not reach the projected rate of 9 mDOMs / site / week, the shipping date for the mDOMs for Strings 87+88 will be missed mDOM Production Yield 1/27/2022 Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Low mDOM Lead Until OM shipping Mitigate Technical problems Produce mDOM test batches at DESY and MSU as early as possible to excercise integration and FAT procedures
see also risk ORG5
Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Air shipping to New Zealand might be required if parts are sufficiently delayed. Off project cost. Critical path schedule delay would be zero if air shipping is utilized as long as parts show up by mid-2023. $ - 0 $0 4 0 26    
62 EXT11 1.3 If integrated sensors have to be stored for too long before deployment, the vacuum seal might leak and re-sealing might become necessary Sensor Long-Term Storage 1/27/2022 Low High Low Low Moderate Low Low OM Lead Until deployment Mitigate Regularly monitor the inside pressure of a sample of stored sensors
Store sensors such that they are accessible for monitoring (not McM?)
Low Low Low Very low Low Low Low If stored sensors are accessible for regular monitoring, the problem can be detected early and sensors can be un-sealed and re-sealed at a rate of about 5 sensors / day. Off project cost $ - 0 $0 8 4 12    
63 TECH34 1.3.2 If during D-Egg FAT a high failure rate or design flaw is found, reworking D-Eggs will lead to significant cost and schedule slippage D-Egg FAT Yield 1/27/2022 Low Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate D-Egg Lead Until FAT Mitigate Commence D-Egg FAT as early as possible
Work closely with D-Egg team on executing and interpreting FAT
Low Very low Very low Low Low Low Low Even a minor re-work of all (300) sealed D-Eggs is a major undertaking, requiring un-sealing, re-sealing and re-testing all modules. Off project cost $ - 0 $ - 0 26 13 52    
64 EXT12 1.3.5 If one of the Special Devices is not delivered, the string design must be updated and verified Special Device Cancellation 1/15/2022 1/27/2022 Very High Low Low Very low Moderate Moderate Moderate OM Lead, Deployment Lead Until deployment readiness review Mitigate Start early developing contingency plans how to replace or bypass missing Special Devices during deployment Moderate Very low Very low Very low Low Low Low Can be managed in close to real time, perhaps a couple of days schedule slip on the ice or slight risk of degraded performance $ - 0 $ - 0 1 0 1    
65 TECH35 1.3.3 Because PDOM pressure vessels are re-furbished from Gen1, handling and resealing with new PCA may introduce subtle flaws that could cause PV flooding after deployment. PDOM PV leak 1/15/2022 1/27/2022 Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low PDOM Lead Until after freeze-in Mitigate No comms with deployed PDOM Inspection of sealing surfaces, comparison of Gen1 and Gen2 PCA sealing surfaces, High Pressure testing. Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low If detected before deployment of remaining strings, a work stoppage for analysis of the problem might be required Costed as a week delay. Should not happen if PDOM design verification is properly done $ 70,000.00 $ 20,000.00 $ 72,500.00 $ 125,000.00 1 0 2    
66 EXT18 1.3.1 If mDOM planned main board electronics parts remain unavailable, a few mainboard redesign will be required: this includes hardware design effort (off of the NSF budget) and software & firmware effort (on NSF budget). mDOM redesign 4/6/2022 4/6/2022 High Moderate High Low High High Moderate mDOM lead Calendar 2022 Mitigate Parts delivery delays/unavailable parts Begin planning and design work ahead of risk trigger on the new mainboard design High Moderate High Low Moderate Moderate Moderate On the NSF budget would need 1 FTE-year of software effort and 1/2 FTE-year of firmware work. $ 240,000.00 $ 160,000.00 $ 320,000.00 2 0 4    
67 TECH36 1.3 Because NPX is very dry, sensor electronics could be damaged by ESD during NPX testing or deployment xDOM Electronics ESD Damage 1/15/2022 1/27/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low OM Lead, Deployment Lead Until deployment Mitigate Modules failures, procedure errors during deployment Employ appropriate internal ESD protection circuitry in the xDOM and ICM. Ensure that ESD mitigation is used on floors, people, and equipment at NPX. Ensure charge neutralization is emplloyed by procedure and equipment during NPX testing. Ensure that charge neutralization is present between electrical cables, TOS and xDOMs as they are being deployed. Very Low Low Moderate Low Low Low Low If process problems with ESD at South Pole, a work stoppage for renewing procedures might be required. Costed as a week delay. $ 70,000.00 $ 20,000.00 $ 72,500.00 $ 125,000.00 1 0 2    
68 1.4 Comms, Power, and Timing (CPT) Distribution System      
69 TECH37 1.4.1.1 Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to revise the main cable design, which will require additional design and testing effort and delay the start of production. Main cable design iteration 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Low High Low Very low Moderate Low Low CPT Lead June 2022 (PSL crescent test) Accept (near-future) Unsatisfactory prototype test N/A Low High Low Very Low Moderate Low Low Schedule impact depends on magnitude of changes required -- an additional prototype cycle could take 1/2 year, while minor changes could be completed in a few weeks. Cost impact limited to on-project engineering labor, likely ~1 FTE-month $ 15,000 $0 $30,000 12 6 26    
70 TECH38 1.4.1 Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to add a separate co-deployed strength member to the Downhole Cable Assembly, which will increase deployment complexity and require additional equipment. Strength member needed 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Moderate High Low Very low High Moderate Low CPT Lead, Deill Lead, Deployment Lead June 2022 (PSL crescent test) Mitigate Unsatisfactory prototype test Begin preparing design for co-deployed rope and test prototype in advance of cable tests Moderate Moderate Low Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Estimated cost of ropes ($18k/string) is largely offset by reduced need for YaleGrips (approx. 60 omitted per string @ $270 each). Cost of additional winch etc. unknown. Time required for design of second winch system unknown. Rough guesses inserted. $ 25,000 $10,000 $60,000 4 2 12    
71 TECH39 1.4.1 Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to redesign the string hardware and deployment procedures, which will require additional design effort, prototyping, and equipment testing. Deployment procedures 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Low Moderate Very Low Very Low Moderate Low Low Deployment Lead June 2022 (PSL crescent test) Accept (near-future) Unsatisfactory prototype test N/A Low Moderate Very Low Very Low Moderate Low Low Design work plus prototyping/testing $ 5,000 $2,500 $10,000 6 4 12    
72 TECH40 1.4.1.1 Because the MCA prototype has not completed mechanical testing, we may need to select an alternate Main Cable supplier, which will necessitate project support for cost and/or impact communications and timing performance Alternate cable 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Low Very high Very high Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate CPT Lead June 2022 (PSL crescent test) Mitigate Unsatisfactory prototype test Pursue development of alternate suppliers, procure cable samples where feasible Very Low High Very High Moderate Low Moderate Low Likely to be delays in switching to new main cable supplier, most vendors are less responsive than Hexatronic. $ 1,500,000 $300,000 $3,500,000 20 4 30    
73 TECH41 1.4.1.1 Because a MCA prototype has not yet been built, the overall diameter of the cable may be larger than estimated and not fit on the currently planned shipping/deployment spool, which will require redesign of the spool, cable, and/or deployment procedure and equipment Cable too large 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Very low Moderate Low Very Low Low Low Low Drill Lead Until first MCA is complete (Aug 2023) Accept Prototype cable diameter is too large. Breakouts are too large Minimize cable diameter to preserve room on spool for breakout connections   Very Low Moderate Low Very Low Low Low Low Design work, larger spools, potentially different equipment. $ 20,000 $10,000 $40,000 8 4 16    
74 TECH42 1.4.1.1 Because a MCA prototype has not yet been built, the overall weight of the cable may be larger than estimated and exceed the limit of the currently planned shipping pallet and/or aircraft, which will require redesign of the cable, spool, or shipping pallet. Cable too heavy 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Very low Moderate Low Very low Low Low Low CPT Lead April 2022 (production of prototype cable) Accept Prototype cable is too heavy N/A   Very Low Moderate Low Very Low Low Low Low Possible redesign of shipping pallet, requiring additional liaison with ASC and drill lead $ 30,000 $7,500 $45,000 16 4 24    
75 TECH43 1.4.1.2 Because a BCA supplier has not been identified, we may need to make significant design changes, which will increase costs and could delay production of other cable elements BCA design iteration 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Low High Moderate Very low Moderate Moderate Low CPT Lead Aug 2022 (start of prototype production) Mitigate Issues during preliminary design Engage with potential suppliers as early as possible Low High Low Very low Moderate Low Low Restarted design phase could take several months, require several FTE-month of engineering effort $ 25,000 $5,000 $75,000 8 2 26    
76 TECH44 1.4.2 Because of connector supply chain disruptions, we may not be able to ship the SCAs or SJBs on the scheduled vessel, which will require them to be shipped ComSur the following year or eliminate the option of staging at McMurdo the season before installation. SCA delay 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Very low Low Low Very low Low Low Low CPT Lead Until connectors are received Mitigate Connector delivery delayed beyond Aug 2022 Order connectors as early as possible (order placed May 2021). Complete first cables using Gen1 leftover connectors to validate assembly procedures.   Very Low Low Moderate Very low Low Low Low Cost of Comsur shipping estimated based on past shipments of large cables. Schedule impact relates to cable shipping date $ 7,500 $6,000 $15,000 4 1 24    
77 EXT13 1.4.3 Because of electronics supply chain disruptions, there may be delays in production of rev1 and/or rev2 FieldHubs, which would reduce the number of prototyping cycles available before we need to enter production. FieldHub delay 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Moderate High Very Low very low High Low Low FieldHub Lead June 2023 (start of FieldHub production) Mitigate Delays in production of rev1/2 FieldHubs Finalize selection of FPGA and other long-lead components as early as possible, order as soon as practicable. Eliminate prototyping cycles rather than delaying production (FieldHub design is already quite mature) Moderate Very low Very low Low Low Low Moderate Elimination of prototyping cycle removes schedule impact at cost of slightly elevated technical risk $ - 0 $0 $0 0 0 0    
78 EXT14 1.4.4.1 Because the vendor identified for the timing and communications hardware used in the FieldHub was recently acquired, the interface to the hardware may change or the product may be retired, which will require additional hardware development effort to change to a different timing node. White Rabbit supplier 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 Low High Low very low Moderate Low Low CPT Infrastructure Lead Spring 2023 Mitigate Substantial changes to baseline timing solution Identify alternate suppliers or alternate timing fanout designs that can be implemented using parts currently on hand Low moderate Low Very low Moderate Low Low Alternative designs identified. Additional effort of 1±1 FTE-month required for design. $ 15,000 $0 $30,000 4 0 8    
79 ORG9 1.4.4.2 Because of increased mDOM and DEgg power consumption and remaining uncertainties around maximum device power consumption, the power distribution system may need to be redesigned for a higher DC voltage, which will require additional development effort. DOM power limit 1/27/2022 3/1/2022 High High Low Very low High Moderate Low CPT Infrastructure Lead April 2022 Redesign final DOM power consumption measurements Due to high risk probability, terminate work on baseline design and switch to new design with lower power density very high Very low Low Very low Moderate Moderate Moderate Additional capEx cost of $40k. Reduced labor required for power monitoring system, some additional labor for power fanout (~40 hrs). Approximately one month schedule delay for timing system and FieldHubs $ 50,000 $40,000 $65,000 4 3 8    
80 TECH45 1.4.3 Because MCA procurement is not finalized, we may have insufficient bandwidth to transmit all data to ICL using the planned cables and comms protocol, which will require additional software or firmware engineering and may reduce science capabilities. Comms bandwidth 8/18/2018 3/1/2022 Low Low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Software Lead Until cable procurement is finalized Mitigate Inability to identify supplier for cables with planned comms quality Design protocol for efficiency and robustness, deploy all elements to NTS for integration testing, begin firmware development early if needed; Consider In-OM hit reductions Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate Low Add engineering effort - 1 FTE yr - to develop better communications protocol. Development schedule permits completion before deployment $200,000 $150,000 $300,000 0 0 26    
81 TECH52 1.4.1.1 Because MCA breakout terminations are a custom solution, the costs of breakout installation may exceed the MSU commitment, requiring project support for MCA costs Breakout costs 3/28/2022 High Very low High Very low Low High Low CPT Lead Until MCA procurement is finalized: PY4 & PY5 Mitigate Final bids for breakout installation exceed available MSU funds Provide cable samples to multiple potential vendors, explore intial designs and negotiate cost reductions with multiple vendors High Low High Very low Moderate High Low High cost estimate based on initial bids from two suppliers (JDR and HGS), cost exposure reflects some assumed cost reductions. Schedule risk reflects possibility of extended design phase $400,000 $0 $750,000 0 0 24    
82 TECH46 1.4.1.4 Because the planned YaleGrips have not been demonstrated to work with the planned MCA in a pull test, we may need to increase the YaleGrip tail lengths, which will increase costs YaleGrip size 2/15/2022 3/1/2022 Low Very low Moderate Very low Low Moderate Low CPT lead Until final cable design review Watch Unsatisfactory pull test with prototype cable N/A Low very low Moderate Very low Low Moderate Low Replace 461 of YG 944506ET20 quoted @$240 with YG 944507ET22 quoted @$410. Possible longer lead time for custom extended tail grips $78,000 $75,000 $85,000 0 0 12    
83 EXT15 1.4.1.1 Because of supply chain disruptions, we may face delays in production of prototypes and production Main Cables, which will require alternate shipping methods and/or eliminate the option of staging the MCAs at McMurdo the season before deployment. Cable delay 1/15/2021 3/1/2022 Moderate High High Very low High High Low CPT Lead PY4 & PY5 Mitigate Production is delayed Offer procurement assistance for long-lead items. Invesitgate and qualify alternative suppliers Low High High Low Moderate Moderate Low Prototypes for qualifying alt. suppliers ~$75k each. Long-lead procurement assistance risks ~$100k. Few-month scale delays still possible $200,000 $50,000 $225,000 $400,000 12 0 40 2021 $180,000 $180,000 $180,000 $0 $0    
84 1.5 Characterization and Calibration System      
85 EXT16 1.5.2.6 Mini Mainboard may be delayed due to components availailability/supply chain issues MMB delay 1/27/2022 2/28/2022   Moderate High Moderate High High Moderate High 1.5 L2 Lead Williams 2022, calibration module DVT and production Mitigate Parts delivery delays/unavailable parts try and obtain components separately Low High Moderate High Moderate Moderate Moderate Some components have been ordered. FPGAs are a concern. Some vendors have been suggesting shopping for parts in China in person $40,000 $20,000 $60,000 26 8 52    
86 EXT17 1.5.3.5 Dust Logger winch cannot be borrowed from IDP, or IDP is unable to fix it, and a new winch needs to be procured Dust Logger Winch Procurement 1/27/2022 2/28/2022   Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 1.5 L2 Lead Williams 2022 discussions with IDP, 2024 testing Early communications Approval delay at IDP, lack of engineering support at IDP Working with IDP to secure the loan of this equipment. Low Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Risk is retired after testing winch with logger (Spring/Summer 2024) $145,000 $140,000 $160,000 8 6 10    
87 1.6 M&O Data Systems integration      
88 TECH47 1.6.1.1 If optical sensor or calibration device software interfaces specifications are delayed will impact DAQ software development DAQ software interface delays 8/17/2018     Low Moderate Low Very low Moderate Low Low 1.6 L2 lead Sensor software delivery milestones Better communications Delivery delays Work closely with Sensor and Calibration devices L2s to ensure software interfaces are developed and adhered to. Interface specification workshop Low Low Low Very low Low Low Low Minor cost impact, mostly delays to schedule. Estimate 20 week possible delay, and 0.1 FTE*yr $20,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 20 0 30    
89 TECH48 1.6.1.1 Because the hit rate from OM devices exceeds the rate available in the DAQ trigger system, and triggers/hits could potentially be missed and physics events missed. DAQ trigger too high 8/17/2018 1/25/2022 (increased probability)   Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 1.6 L2 lead DAQ software testing Mitigate DAQ trigger testing failures Refactor DAQ trigger algorithms to allow for higher rates, including developing noise rejection methods or look to reduce rate of trigger primitives from modules via cuts Very low Low Moderate Low Low Low Low Would require potential refactoring of DAQ architecture to support additional rates. If realized, could be an 0.5FTE*yr and 20 week delay $80,000 $40,000 $80,000 $120,000 20 10 30    
90 TECH49 1.6.1.1 If the per-PMT noise rates in mDOMs exceed design specifications, the in-OM data processing and noise mitigation algorithms may not have enough in-OM resources and data could potentially be lost. mDOM noise rates overwhelm MCU 1/25/2022     Moderate Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate 1.6 L2 lead integrated mDOM testing Mitigate MCU can't keep up with rate of mDOM PMTs Use FPGA firmware resources to offload MCU; develop more CPU efficient feature extraction algorithms Very low Low Low Low Low Low Low Minimal cost impacts or schedule impacts: these mitigations are already planned, just need to retune and understand physics impact $10,000 $0 $7,500 $15,000 6 0 10    
91 TECH50 1.6.1.1 If an in-ice device could be identified as the wrong type at boot up, improper hardware configuration could be used, leading to damage of components. MCU SW Config ID failure 1/25/2022     Low Very Low Low Low Low Low Low 1.6 L2 lead FAT testing of modules Mitigate Module type incorrectly ID by HW selection and hardware systems potentially damaged Ensure robust testing of all mainboards as early as possible to ID issues with this key circuit; implement additional checks against backup IDs in scratch nvram Very low Low Low Low Low Low Low Addiitional internal software safety checks might be needed. 0.25 FTE*yr, 12 weeks $40,000 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 6 3 9    
92 TECH51 1.6.1.1 If the total data rate from all connected devices exceeds the total available processing bandwidth, the FieldHub will be unable to keep up with data transfer from all connected devices and data could be lost. FieldHub software unable to keep up 1/25/2022     Low Low Low Low Low Low Low 1.6 L2 lead FieldHub full scale testing at NTS Mitigate Fully loaded field hub can't process all hits from ~100 connected DOMs Scale tests on pre-production field hub units, investigate non-USB transfer mechanisms, parallelism in SBC design. Very low Low Low Low Low Low Low Potentially need to investigate alternative data transfer methods internally, or additional parallelism. Work generally off-Upgrade funding, but potential if M&O resources overwehlmed. $25,000 $0 $20,000 $40,000 20 5 30    
93   Opportunities                            
94 OPP1 1.1 If contributed drillers (from collaborating institutions) are provided as in-kind contributions, the project can save seasonal driller labor costs. Contributed drillers 3/8/2022     Moderate Very low High Very low Low High Low 1.1 PM Ahead of FS1 Opportunity Volunteers from the collaboration Will advertise it widely within the collaboration. Fixed FS years will help significantly. Moderate Very low High Very low Low High Low Contributed drillers (up to 10 person*seasons) replace $50000 in direct costs. $250,000 $100,000   $500,000 0 0 0                        
95                                
96     Retirement home + Deleted risks                                    
97 RET1 1.6.4 If there are delays in design of the IDF, computing infrastructure equipment ordering and shipping could be delayed - retire IDF late design 8/17/2018 7/4/2019 7/4/2019 Low Low Moderate Very low Low Moderate Low 1.6 L2 lead IDF facility design delivery Mitigate IDF Design delays Separate network/computing design elements in the IDF design process, preventing delays in other areas from largely impacting 1.6 Low Low Low Very low Low Low Low Minor cost impact. The IFD is no longer being used in the IceCube Upgrade Project. $0    
98 RET2 1.6.1.1 If optical sensor or calibration device software interfaces specifications are delayed will impact DAQ software development Includes ICM Firmware Development. This includes the delivery of the CPT infrastructure. (Combined Risks TECH15 and TECH16) COVID-19 DAQ software interface delays Risks: 3, 10 8/17/2018   1/25/2022 Low Moderate Very low Very low high Low Low 1.6 L2 lead Sensor software delivery milestones Better communications Delivery delays Work closely with Sensor and Calibration devices L2s to ensure software interfaces are developed and adhered to. Interface specification workshop. Prioritize remote development efforts, such as FAT software readiness using networked main boards. high moderate low low High Moderate Moderate    
99 RET3 1.6.1 If there are delays in delivery of CPT infrastructure for testing (Field Hubs, SJBs, NTS) then the development of Online Systems will be delayed CPT milestone delays 8/17/2018   1/25/2022 Low Moderate Very low Very low Moderate Low Low 1.6 L2 lead CPT Hardware delivery date Better communications Delivery delays Work closely with CPT L2 and L3s to ensure at least partially hardware delivery for development and testing Low Low Very low Very low Low Low Low Minor $0    
100 RET4 1.5.1.1 If there are delays in implementation of common calibration database for production calibration, calibration constants may not be stored in easily usable condition Production calibration database 8/17/2018   2/28/2022 Low Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate 1.5.1 L3 Lead Williams Module Production Better communications Deliverable delay in 1.5.1.1 Coordinate early between module production sites and 1.5.1 L3 lead but add software labor if needed in PY4-PY5. Low Low Very low Very low Low Low Low 2 months software developer effort    
101 RET5 1.5.1.2 Different module designs may delay implementation of Flashers and other calibration devices,DOM calibration software and interface to DAQ/experiment control DOMcal equivalent 8/17/2018   2/28/2022 Low Low Very low Moderate Low Low Moderate 1.5.1 L3 Lead Williams Module deployment Better communications Deliverable delay in 1.5.1.2 Be pro-active on module calibration implementation and on the software and hardware implementation of the collection of module calibration information; additional SW development may be necessary by PY4 at latest. Low Low Very low Very low Low Low Low 2 months software developer effort    
102 RET6 1.3 If glass spheres have higher than expected radioactive contamination, then quality of optical module data suffers Bad glass 8/2/2018 2/22/2022 High Very low Very low Moderate Low Low High OM Lead Before mDOM / D-Egg FDR Mitigate Test failures Monitor manufacturing, test samples at prototype stage. Some effort may be necessary to handle additional bandwidth in sensor firmware. Moderate Low Moderate Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Additional engineering effort to mitigate - 0.5 FTE yr    
103 RET7 1.2.2 Capstone Microturbine Generators not performing as necessary. Could slow drilling season. No longer applicable Microturbines 8/2/2018 4/4/2019 3/1/2019 Moderate High Moderate Moderate High Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr Until delivery Mitigate Performance Purchase of additional generator unit after drill IVT (PY4) in S Pole environment. The microturbines will not be utilized in Upgrade. Low Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Low Cost of additional C200 cabinet (REMOVE) $199,800 $9,990 $49,950    
104 RET8 1.2.8.5 Discharge of CO2 Fire Suppression System-Asphyxiation - Retire CO2 Discharge 10/9/2019 10/9/2019 12/2/2020 Low High High Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Implementation Mgr 21/22 and 22/23 Mitigate Fire or Accident 1. Disconnect CO2 System.
Very Low Very low Very low Very Low Low Low Low    
105 RET9 1.2.8 If logistics preclude the delivery of shipments for major components, then an additional season might be required. These components are typically: the Drill Hose, Drill Cable, Systems Shipments, DOM, Special Devices, and Surface Cables. COVID-19 Season delay Risks: 4,5, 6, 8, 9 8/2/2018 4/2/2020 2/2/2022 high Moderate Moderate Very low High High Low PM Feyzi During 2022-2023 Pole season Mitigate Problem during season 1. Mitigate underlying reasons for Pole season issues, financial contingency to support additional season. 2. Ship Drill Hose from a C-17, rather than traverse it. 3. Put Drill Cable on a C-17 and ship it to Pole 21-22 season, rather than vesseling it to MCM. 4. To reduce risk in 21-22 Shipments, expedite the completion of remote Design Reviews to add some to the equipment schedules. 5. The main cable and DOMs could withstand a 6-month delay inschedule with no delivery impact. Continue with main cable engineering tasks to keep up with production scheduling. 6. Finalize documentation, firmware, and protype design work as much as possible, remotely. Set-up orders for components. Get a head start on the later design work. moderate Moderate Moderate Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Cost of additional seasonal drill and deployment crew for partial season, assuming first season not total miss.    
106 RET10 1.1.1.1 If project office is not able to closely track international finances, then those cost controls may not succeed, causing schedule delays. In-kind tracking issues 8/2/2018 4/1/2020 Moderate High Moderate Low High Moderate Moderate PM Feyzi Throughout project execution. Mitigate Milestones of in-kind contributions missed. Maintain milestones for in-kind detailed tracking by L2 cost account manager. Low Low High Low Low Moderate Low L2 cost account managers may need additional effort to develop and track milestones. Model as one additional month of key program staff per year for all project years. $127,181 $6,359 $31,795 PY2 PY4    
107 RET11 1.1.3.2 Winter Storage DNF Failure - McMurdo hose storage heat failure, or NPX drill head storage heater/power failure. Duplicate DNF Failure 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Very low High High Very low Moderate Low Low Haugen 21/22 or 22/23 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Work with ASC to develop back-up plan in the event of long-term power failure. If there is a major power failure at Pole during the winter, the Winterover staff will make corrections ASAP. Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Low Low Low    
108 RET12 1.1.3.1 Domestic/International Shipping Delays - Equipment being shipped to PTH, or via vessel are delayed en route. Duplicate Shipping Delays 12/13/2018 1/16/2019 Low Moderate Moderate Very low Moderate Moderate Low Haugen 21/22 or 22/23 Mitigate Poor performance during the Production phase for Upgrade instrumentation. Schedule CONUS shipments of most critical items with additional time. Plan vessel/traverse shipments with a backup LC130 fly-in plan. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Add cost for shipping via air to CHC.    
109 RET13 1.1.1 If we do not find a suitable PM, reviews will be delayed and budgets may not be well controlled. Retire PM job 8/2/2018 7/1/2019 Moderate Moderate Low Very low Moderate Moderate Low PI Hanson PY1 Mitigate Job search failure More broadly advertise, raise salary, empower interim and deputy PM Moderate Low Moderate Very Low Moderate Moderate Low Cost of higher PM salary over 4.5 yr $51,508 $12,877 $25,754    
110 RET14 1.3.1 Opportunity to switch from Hammamatsu to HZC PMTs. HZC tubes are larger and less costly. Better PMTs at Lower Cost 10/1/2018 3/23/2019 High Very Low Very High moderate Low High High 1.3 LEAD Karg 1st Half 2019 Comparison Study Result of Study HZC tubes appear to meet general requirements. Purchase order using new money from KIT will allow Hamamatsu or HZC tube options. Cost impact is within the KIT budget. No remaining risk/opportunity on the NSF end of the project. Cost savings and impacts are in the budgets and schedules now.    
111 RET15 1.3.1 Hamamatsu starts production of PMTs plus HV bases before full base testing is completed Hamamatsu production 12/20/2019 12/20/2019 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Timo First half of 2020 Mitigate Test failures 1. Work with Hamamatsu for a partial prodution plan to minimize cost impact if different base required. 2. Improve communications between project and Hamamatsu. 3. Expedite testing. Low Low Low Low Low Low Low    
112 RET16 1.3.1 1.3.2 If there is an earthquake in Japan, PMT manufacturing could be severely disrupted Quake PMTs 8/2/2018 Low High High Low Moderate Moderate Low OM lead Until delivery Mitigate Earthquake Alternate PMTs (from Chinese company HZC) could be qualified, cadence of acquisition checked to keep surplus on hand Low Low Low Very Low Low Low Low Off NSF budget $0    
113 RET17 1.4.4.2 Because of limited electrical infrastructure in ICL, we may need to redesign the power distribution system to reduce power density, which will require additional development effort ICL power 1/27/2022 2/3/2022 High Moderate Moderate very low High High Low CPT Infrastructure Lead       Incorporated into rebaselined plan              
114 RET18 1.1 The Upgrade Project is funded for only 5 strings. Only 5 Strings 1/9/2019 4/4/2019 3/1/2019 Moderate Moderate Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Hanson 21/22 and 22/23 Mitigate Receipt of funding for only 5 strings Receipt of KIT Funding to cover the additional 2 strings. Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low The KIT Funding is pretty much a given. Risk Exposure Cost is the price of 2 cBLES.    
115 RET19 1.3.1 If other experiments (KM3NeT, Hyper-K) purchase Hamamatsu 3-inch PMTs in the same time frame as us, Hamamatsu's production capacitites might be insufficient to complete mDOM production in time mDOM PMT 8/13/2018 Moderate High Low Low High Moderate Moderate mDOM lead Until delivery Mitigate Procurement fails Qualify alternate PMT manufacturers; keep close contact with Hamamatsu and responsibles from other experiments Very Low High Low Low Low Low Low Off NSF budget $0    
116 RET20 1.1 Inability to deploy a full crew to the South Pole for the 2022-2023 Season due to USAP cancelations Crew deployment Risk 2 4/3/2020 4/3/2020 2/1/2022 High High Moderate Low High High Moderate PM FF Drill Season 2020-2021 Mitigate Corona Virus Work with ASC to expedite travel and qualification procedures. Work with a smaller crew if needed at reduced capacity and scope. High High Moderate Very Low High High Low A large majority of the hot water drill repair work is scheduled for the 2020-2021 season If we are unable to complete this work on-time, the drill/SES may not be ready for full system testing in the 2021-2022 season, and not ready for the drilling of the 7 holes in the 2022-2023 season.    
117 RET21 Combined into TECH7, formerly TECH9, now RET21. Major Fire damage to drill infrastructure - Main Heating Plant MHP Fire 10/9/2019 3/2/2022 Low Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Fire in a Hot MDS. 1. Fire Extinguishers 2. Heat Rise Indicator to DCC 3. Smoke Detectors to DCC 4. CO Monitors to DCC 5. Routine checks 6. Training 7. Hardware Safety Mechanisms Very Low Very Low Very Low Very Low Low Low Low drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr
(3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season
28*88*525 = 1.3M
training = 193k
PQ/travel = 244k
Another drill season = 1.74M
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k
New MHP ~ $750k
Total = 2.8M
Would need to C17 and LC130 the MHP down
Alt option = WISSARD HPU modules
$2,800,000 $2,000,000 $2,450,000 $2,900,000 52 52 104 FS3 end $368,625 $368,625 $368,625 $368,625 $368,625    
118 RET22 1.2 Unable to secure full competent team of planned contributed drillers (formerly ORG3), all drillers are in the cost plan Contributed Drillers 3/1/2022 3/2/2022 High High High Moderate High High High PM FS2 & FS3 Watch Unable to secure commitments prior to FS2 Secure commitments early, starting before FS1. Ramp up recruitment starting in FS1 and retain same people through FS3 Moderate Moderate High Low Moderate High Moderate Need to direct-hire drillers to fill-in planned contributed positions. Est. 10 positions across all FSs @ tech rate ~ $44k per driller $440,000 $350,000 $500,000 4 2 6    
119 RET23 1.2.3 Combined into TECH7+11, this risk, formerly ORG8, is along with the other risks down at the 1% level, even combining them, they end up in the VERY LOW level. During hot-water drilling the main drill head is stuck or frozen-in due to hole constriction or operator error. If not mitigated this could lead to partial loss of season. Stuck Drill 8/15/2018 3/2/2022 Low Very High Very High Low Moderate Moderate Low Implementation Mgr FS3 Mitigate Technical problems or Operator Error Provide robust operator training. Assure hole measuring devices are accurate and reliable. Develop procedure to re-ream narrow areas in hole to assure minimum diameter is maintained. Drill conservatively if possible, purchase additional hose segments and drill head if season appears to be at risk. Very Low High High Low Low Low Low drill team ~ 8engr + 20techs, ave rate = 88/hr
(3.5mo/12)*1800hr/yr = 525 hr/season
28*88*525 = 1.3M
training = 193k
PQ/travel = 244k
Another drill season = 1.74M
Another offseason (lite) ~ 300k
New Drill hose ~ $1.2M, New Drill cable ~ $350k
Total = 3.6M
Low estimate: stuck at shallow depth, recoverable season, delay of 2 weeks
$500,000 $196,800 $3,600,000 52 52 104 FS3 end    
120     Notes:                                                                                        
121     1. Risk ID is type of risk and then count up serially. Types of risk are Technical, External, Organizational, and Project Management.                                                                                        
122     2. Risk Description is a complete sentence.                                                                                        
123     3. Risk Title is a very brief description of the risk that might be used in normal conversation. Not sure if we need this.                                                                                        
124     4. Risk Handling Approach / Response is either Mitigate (actions required), Watch, Accept, Avoid or Research.                                                                                        
125     5. Column headers in green are directly from LFN March 2017 Risk Register template.                                                                                        
126     6. Technical risks are related to requirements, technology, interfaces, performance and quality.                                                                                        
127     7. External risks are related to suppliers,                                                                                        
128     8. Organizational risks are related to project dependencies, logistics, resources, budget, etc.                                                                                        
129     9. Project Management risks are related to planning, schedule, estimation, controls, communications, etc.                                                                                        
130     10. Risk trigger identifies the risk symptoms or warning signs. It indicates that a risk has occurred or is about to occur.                                                                                        
131     11. Assign probabilities and impacts following guidance in tables on respective sheets.                                                                                        
132     12. Risk score is determined from table in 'Scoring' sheet                                                                                        
133     13. Risk in red is a risk which exceeds the scope of the project, and is NOT included in the risk Monte Carlo or total risk costing.                                                                                        
134     14. Risks in blue are logistics-related risks, highlighted so they can be analyzed separately.                                                                                        

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  A B C
1 Date Modified by Description of changes made
2 17-Jan-19 J Haugen Added Change Log tab to track changes made to the Risk Register
3 6-Feb-19 M. Zernick Corrected some formulas/Completed analysis for J. Haugen Risks.
4 11-Feb-19 Zernick/Hanson Costed Opportunity OPP1. Re-analyzed Risk PM2. Added Average Estimate Column.
5 15-Feb-19 M. Zernick Updated PY Remaining Contingency columns to include AVG. Risk Cost. Corrected some earlier risk cost calculations.
6 19-Mar-19 M. Zernick Retired the Micro-turbine Risk: EXT1. Retired 5 Holes Only Risk: ORG 7
7 20-Mar-19 M. DuVernois Minor edits for style and fixed a couple of calculation errors.
8 21-Mar-19 T. DeYoung Reviewed, no changes
9 23-Mar-19 T. Karg Reviewed, no changes
10 23-Mar-19 M. DuVernois Edited HZC opportunity. Retired it.
11 28-Mar-19 D. Williams Reviewed, no changes
12 28-Mar-19 E.Blaufuss Reviewed, no changes
13 31-Mar-19 M. Zernick Reviewed ORG4. No changes.
14 4-Apr-19 M. Zernick Revised Drill Risks as per the 04/03/2019 Drill Risk Meeting. Hid "AVG Cost Column." Changed Drill Lead to Drill MGR. Added Revison Dates.
15 26-Jun-19 M.Zernick Reviewed ORG4. No changes. (WBS 1.1.2.1)
16 26-Jun-19 T. Karg Reviewed WBS 1.3 risks; no changes
17 27-Jun-19 T. DeYoung Clarified wording of TECH2 to reflect baseline geometry. No other changes.
18 28-Jun-19 D. Williams Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes
19 3-Jul-19 T. Hutchings Reviewed 1.2 risks, no changes
20 3-Jul-19 M. DuVernois Reviewed. No changes.
21 4-Jul-19 E.Blaufuss Reviewed. No changed needed now. Tech risk18 no longer applicable.
22 8-Jul-19 M. Zernick Tech18 Risk is retired. The IDF is no longer being used by the Icecube Upgrade Project.
23 24-Sep-19 M. Zernick Reviewed Risk ORG4. No changes.
24 25-Sep-19 T. Hutchings Reviewed 1.2 risks. No changes
25 27-Sep-19 T. Karg Reviewed 1.3 risks. Extended ORG5 "Optical moduled by air" into PY5 since the last modules will ship one year later if there is no traverse
26 30-Sep-19 D. WIlliams Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes
27 30-Sep-19 E. Blaufuss Reviewed 1.6 risks, noted retirement of Tech18 per CR#2, dropping IDF from plan.
28 30-Sep-19 M. Zernick Added "Last Modified Date" to TECH18 Risk.
29 2-Oct-19 F. Feyzi Added revised annual estimates based on PY2 detail planning and PY1 actuals
30 9-Oct-19 M. Zernick/TH Added TECH32 and TECH33. (CO2Fire Suppression)/Removed Contingency for retired risks: EXT1, ORG7, and PMI1
31 20-Dec-19 M. DuVernois Added TECH34. (PMT w/base production for mDOM before full testing of base)
32 21-Dec-19 E.Blaufuss Reviewed 1.6 risks, no changes.
33 23-Dec-19 M. Zernick Added Contingency $ to TECH34.
34 26-Dec-19 T. Hutchings Reviewed 1.2 risks. No changes
35 30-Dec-19 T. Karg Reviewed 1.3 risks, no changes
36 30-Dec-19 T. DeYoung TECH31 probablity very low based on Hexatronic sample. Cost exposure should be recalculated
37 30-Dec-19 D. Williams Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes
38 2-Jan-20 M. Zernick Revised TECH 31: recalulated resultant risk exposure/ Contingency for PY18-19 per TY's changes.
39 6-Jan-20 M. Zernick Revised TECH31: Changed anticipated risk retirement dates from PY1 (18-19) to PY2 (19-20)
40 13-Mar-20 TB/MAZ Added TECH35 to cover frozen drill hose. Clarified distinction between ORG4 and ORG6 regarding injury on the ice.
41 22-Apr-20 MAZ Added COVID-19 Risks: TECH36, TECH37, ORG8, and ORG9. Modified Risk ORG3 to accommodate additional risk incurred by COVID-19
42 18-Jun-20 T. Karg Reviewed 1.3 risks, no changes
43 18-Jun-20 T. DeYoung Reviewed 1.4 risks, no changes
44 18-Jun-20 E. Blaufuss Reviewed 1.6 risks, no changes.
45 23-Jun-20 D. Williams Reviewed 1.5 risks, no changes.
46 25-Sep-20 I. McEwen Updated owner - ORG6, EXT10, TECH19, TECH23, TECH20, ORG1, ORG2, TECH36, EXT1, TECH22, TECH25, TECH26, TECH27, TECH24, TECH5, TECH21, TECH28, TECH29, TECH1, TECH30, TECH32, TECH33, & TECH35 to Implementation Manager
47 26-Sep-20 I. McEwen Adjusted Org 6 language to include both serious accidents and incidents (added) during on-ice activites, not just drilling activities.
48 27-Sep-20 I. McEwen Updated EXT1 Risk language.
49 14-Jan-21 M. DuVernois Typo fixes, formating changes, no content changes.
50 5-Feb-21 FF/MAZ Finalized rebaselined risks.
51 28-Jan-21 M. Zernick Shift all all retired risks to "Low Priority Risk" Status. Only the Re-Baselined Risks remain a priority.
52 24-Feb-21 MAZ, IMc, MR Added 4+4 Risks tab. Added risks.
53 24-Feb-21 M. Zernick Removed EXT15 from Rebaselined RR (Current)
54 16-Mar-21 M. Zernick PMO Risk Review
55 7-May-21 M. Zernick New risk identified for Supplemental Funding. PMO Review
56 19-Jan-22 I. McEwen Adjusted field season references from dates to field season (FS1,FS2, & FS3) lines 4-10
57 25-Jan-22 D. Tosi Added risks to 1.2.9 and 1.2.10 (to be completed)
58 27-Jan-22 T. Karg Retired OPP1, TECH34, Ext2, Ext3. Added new risks in WBS 1.3
59 27-Jan-22 D. Tosi Added Dust Logger Procurement risk to 1.5 (needs to be completed)
60 27-Jan-22 T. DeYoung Added risks to 1.4
61 1-Feb-22 T. DeYoung Removed risks Tech3 (Cable mechanical) and Tech7 (cable timing) as these are now captured in FMEA
62 21-Feb-22 T. Benson Updated TECH36
Named and updated TECH39
Named and updated TECH40 (combined two separate testBed-related controls risks into one, re-rated)
Added TECH41,42,44,45
Updated ratings for ORG6,10,11
Updated TECH23, ORG2, TECH32, TECH22, TECH25, TECH27, TECH20
TECH24 - renamed and updated description
63 2-Mar-22 T. Benson Updated all 1.2 drill risks with exposure values, added Contributed Driller risk
64 3-Mar-22 M. Zernick Updated Major Risk Flags to coincide with RIG requirements.
65 8-Mar-22 M. DuVernois Combined TECH7 & 9. Modified project killer (extra year) risks with mitigations to keep them within the single drill season at best; though could exceed. Added opportunity of contributed drillers. Fixed some cost scorings to match the dollar figures of exposure.
66 8-Apr-22 M. Zernick Corrected ORG1 risk calculation formulas. Added lines where none were.
67 9-Apr-22 V. O'Dell Corrected post-mitigation risk scores

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  A B C D E
1 Risk Probabilities Table Limits for Calculation  
2 Probability of Occurrence Descriptor Numerical Ranges Low High  
3 Very Low < 5% 1% 5%
4 Low 5% - 25% 5% 25%
5 Moderate 25% - 50% 25% 50%
6 High 50% - 75% 50% 75%
7 Very High > 75% 75% 95%  

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  A B C D E F
1 Impacts
2 Project Objective Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
3 Cost Less than $10k $10k - $50k $50k - $250k $250k - $1M > $1M
4 Time Less than 1 week Month 3 months 6 months Greater than 6 months
5 Scope Scope decreases barely noticeable Minor areas of scope affected Major areas of scope affected Scope reduction unacceptable to sponsor Project item is effectively useless
6 Quality / Performance Quality / performance degradation barely noticeable Only very demanding applications are affected Quality / performance reduction requires sponsor approval Quality / performance degradation unacceptable to sponsor Project item is effectively useless
7            
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9            
10            
11            
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13            
14            
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16       `    

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  A B C D E F
1 Probability and Impact Matrix for Risk Scoring
2 Probability Impact
3 Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
4 Very High Moderate Moderate High High High
5 High Low Moderate High High High
6 Moderate Low Moderate Moderate High High
7 Low Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate
8 Very Low Low Low Low Low Moderate

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  A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
1 Technical (TECH) Risk Title Organizational (ORG) Risk Title External (EXT) Risk Title Project Management (PM) Risk Title Retired Risks (RET) Risk Title
2 TECH1 Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 1 ORG1 Optical modules by air EXT1 Fuel Delays PM1 Inflation RET1 IDF late design
3 TECH2 Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 2 ORG2 M&O Injury EXT2 DNF Failure PM2 Resignation RET2 DAQ software interface delays Risks: 3, 10
4 TECH3 Delay in Drill Control Systems Development Risk 3 ORG3 RETIRED: Contributed Drillers EXT3 Traverse Delays RET3 CPT milestone delays
5 TECH4 Loss of Drill Expertise (overlap PM2) ORG4 FS3 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident EXT4 Shipping Delays RET4 Production calibration database
6 TECH5 Novel String Installation - Equip ORG5 FS2 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident EXT5 ASC Support RET5 DOMcal equivalent
7 TECH6 Unable to dispose of Condensate ORG6 FS1 Serious Driller/Deployer Injury/incident EXT6 Logistics Delays RET6 Bad glass
8 TECH7 Major Equipment Failure ORG7 Driller recruitment EXT7 Logistics and Cargo RET7 Microturbines
9 TECH8 Control System Problem ORG8 Combined into TECH7 EXT8 Drill obstructions RET8 CO2 Discharge
10 TECH9 Combined into TECH7 ORG9 DOM power limit EXT9 mDOM Electronics Supply Chain RET9 Season delay Risks: 4,5, 6, 8, 9
11 TECH10 MHP Failures EXT10 mDOM Support Structure Supply Chain RET10 In-kind tracking issues
12 TECH11 Tower failure EXT11 Sensor Long-Term Storage RET11 DNF Failure
13 TECH12 Drill Head Problems EXT12 Special Device Cancellation RET12 Shipping Delays
14 TECH13 Main Reel Failure EXT13 FieldHub delay RET13 PM job
15 TECH14 Damaged Drill Hose EXT14 White Rabbit supplier RET14 Better PMTs at Lower Cost
16 TECH15 Damaged Drill Cable EXT15 Cable delay RET15 Hamamatsu production
17 TECH16 Frozen Drill Hose EXT16 MMB delay RET16 Quake PMTs
18 TECH17 Motor Drives EXT17 Dust Logger Winch Procurement RET17 ICL power
19 TECH18 HPP Failure RET18 Only 5 Strings
20 TECH19 RWP Failure RET19 mDOM PMT
21 TECH20 IFD Failure RET20 Crew deployment Risk 2
22 TECH21 Old EHWD Failure RET21 Major fire, combined TECH7 & 9
23 TECH22 Generator Problems RET22 Contributed drillers
24 TECH23 Sensor Handling - Sled RET23 Hose stuck
25 TECH24 Sensor Handling - Tent
26 TECH25 ESD - Handle + Deploy
27 TECH26 Partial Undeployment of String
28 TECH27 String Partial Loss
29 TECH28 String Total Loss
30 TECH29 Dust Logger Winch
31 TECH30 TU-20 Failure
32 TECH31 OM FDR
33 TECH32 mDOM Bubbles
34 TECH33 mDOM Production Yield
35 TECH34 D-Egg FAT Yield
36 TECH35 PDOM PV leak
37 TECH36 xDOM Electronics ESD Damage
38 TECH37 Main cable design iteration
39 TECH38 Strength member needed
40 TECH39 Deployment procedures
41 TECH40 Alternate cable
42 TECH41 Cable too large
43 TECH42 Cable too heavy
44 TECH43 BCA design iteration
45 TECH44 SCA delay
46 TECH45 Comms bandwidth
47 TECH46 YaleGrip size
48 TECH47 DAQ software interface delays
49 TECH48 DAQ trigger too high
50 TECH49 mDOM noise rates overwhelm MCU
51 TECH50 MCU SW Config ID failure
52 TECH51 FieldHub software unable to keep up
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